Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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615 FXUS63 KDVN 141050 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 550 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Well above normal temperatures next week will bring hot and humid conditions to the area. Peak afternoon heat indices will be in the 95 to 100 degree range. - The heat and humidity will come with occasional chances for scattered storms from Saturday into late next week. While there are chances for rain, prolonged dry periods are anticipated as well. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Today and Tonight A ridge aloft will build into the Midwest as surface high pressure slides across the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes. Expect seasonably warm temperatures today with highs ranging from the lower 80s across the north to mid/upper 80s central and south. A post-frontal air mass will continue to advect into the region leading to comfortable humidity with dewpoints only in the 50s. For the overnight period, ambient temperatures will drop into the upper 50s to low 60s. Saturday A shortwave trough is forecast to eject out of the Southern Rockies into the central Plains early Saturday with the main 500mb vorticity max staying NW of the local area, traversing across western Iowa into southern Minnesota. This will keep the stronger forcing and highest rain chances to the north. Isolated warm air advection showers and storms are possible on Saturday, but with most of the area likely to stay dry. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Saturday Night As the southern periphery of the mid-level shortwave glances the area late Saturday night, a period of scattered showers and storms is possible, especially across the northern portion of the forecast area. NBM rain chances range from near 20% along I-80 to 30-50% north of Highway 30. Confidence is low on whether this round of showers and storms impacts portions of the outlook area, or remains mostly to the north where the stronger 850mb flow and attendant convergence is forecast. Sunday Hot and humid conditions are expected with highs in the low to mid 90s and peak heat indices between 95 to near 100 degrees, highest south of I-80. Subsidence behind the departing shortwave should result in mainly dry conditions across the outlook area for the afternoon. A surface low tracking near Lake Superior will lead to breezy SW winds locally with gusts up to 30 mph, providing some relief from the hot conditions. The resultant boundary layer mixing could hold dewpoints in the 60s and prevent much of the area from reaching Heat Advisory criteria, aside from on an isolated/brief basis. Next Week Hot weather is expected Monday and Tuesday with forecast highs in the low/mid 90s (isolated upper 90s possible on Monday). Again, dewpoints will be the main player in whether locations hit Heat Advisory criteria (100 F). The NBM has afternoon dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s with peak heat indices between 95 to around 100 degrees. The core of the upper-level heat dome is forecast to set up over the Eastern U.S. through the middle to end of the week, placing eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois on the western fringe. This may allow a surface boundary to drop in from the NW leading to occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Confidence on any appreciable rainfall is fairly low this far out. High temperatures are also uncertain for the mid to late week period. The NBM is a few degrees "cooler", while the EC deterministic and ensemble mean retrograde the 500mb heat dome back into the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley region, leading to a continuation of the well above normal temperatures and no reprieve from the heat. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 545 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 High pressure will lead to prevailing VFR through the period with light winds and dry conditions. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Uttech LONG TERM...Uttech AVIATION...Uttech