Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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457 FXUS63 KDVN 191748 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1248 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...18z Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms today and not as hot - Hotter again Friday and Saturday && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 410 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Today: Cold front just to the west of the forecast area was producing a band of showers and thunderstorms from southwest IA to northeast IA early this morning. This front will continue to slowly move southeast across the entire forecast area as the day progresses. This front getting a nudge to the southeast as low pressure tracks from Lake Superior to James Bay. Scattered to clusters of showers and storms should occur today, with the higher chances 50-70 percent in our northwest, with lesser pops to the southeast. This scenario will also continue into this evening as the front begins stalling in far northern MO. Forecast soundings indicate that shear and instability will be even less than what was given me yesterday. As a result, SPC has removed our area from the Marginal Risk that was in place. However, any stronger storm could still produce gusty winds to 40 mph and heavy downpours with PWAT`s of 1.60 inches and storms moving northeast at 25 mph. There will be a nice temperature gradient across our area with highs in the upper 70s at Independence, IA to 92 at Macomb, IL. Tonight: The main area of scattered showers and storms will remain roughly across our northwest half, as the front begins returning northward as a warm front. Lows will range from the mid 60s nw to the lower 70s se. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 410 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Thursday through Friday: With the warm front lifting north of the forecast area, the main concentration of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will once again be in southern/central MN and WI. (This additional rain will raise concerns for flooding later this month especially on the Mississippi River as the water flows downstream into our area. Stay tuned to updated river forecasts). As a result of the front well to our north, our temperatures will turn hotter again with much of the area having highs in the lower 90s. The NBM temperatures have shown a warm bias lately and I have lowered these readings a couple of degrees. Little change in forecast reasoning from yesterday: This weekend: Global models similar in developing a stronger trough and surface low tracking from the northern Plains to the northern Great Lakes region. This sweeps a cold front across our forecast area Saturday afternoon and night, which may offer the potential for strong to severe storms. This is a pattern change as this deepening trough into the eastern United States breaks down the persistent heat dome. Highs in the lower to mid 90s on Saturday and then in the 80s on Sunday. Early next week: Another pattern change to a heat dome building in the southern Plains with hot weather returning to our area with highs again in the lower 90s. Pattern recognition suggests MCS`s riding the edge of the heat dome will impact near or across the forecast area. Stay tuned! && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 As a northeast-to-southwest oriented front sags acrs the area in from the west, some MVFR to low VFR cumulus will continue to the east of the front and spread eastward increasing into IL this evening. The watch will be on for pre-frontal isolated to sctrd showers and thunderstorms that may pass by in the VCNTY of most of the TAF sites this afternoon into the evening. A few may be strong with gusty variable winds and temporary reduced VSBYs down to under 2 miles as they pass by with heavy rain and winds. A rather slow passage of the front will bring about a sfc wind veering to the northwest and then eventually north to northeast through the TAF sites later this afternoon and evening. Some uncertainty with regards with post-frontal low MVFR to IFR clouds late tonight into Thu morning that some models want to do. But may trend with lower MVFR early Thu morning for now at most sites except BRL. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Haase LONG TERM...Haase AVIATION...12