Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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686 FXUS63 KDVN 091750 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1250 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy pleasant weather is expected today. - Below normal temperatures in place tonight through Monday night. - Warm/Hot weather remains on track for Wednesday through the Weekend. - SLGT Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 It seems like we`ve had plenty of deep mixing days lately, and we`re set up for another mostly sunny, breezy, how humidity day again today. After lows in the lower to mid 50s today, a rapid rebound to the lower 80s is expected in most areas, with humidity dropping to 25-30% during the afternoon as winds blow 15 to 25 mph gusting to 35 mph from the northwest. These are comfortable days for people, but certainly are drying out our topsoil. Tonight, with clear skies, we`ll quickly decouple winds and allow for another chilly night with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. This dry air is at least allowing for air conditioners to take nights off. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 The dry air regime (high pressure) will continue to stay in control through Tuesday. Monday appears to be less mixed, and should have highs in the 70s, while Tuesday will see increasing southwest winds on the back side of the high pressure, and return to the lower 80s again. In that transition out of the high pressure, some models suggest a few high based showers by Tuesday afternoon in warm advection aloft. We`re carrying very low pops in our northwestern counties for that, but this probably is a virga event or sprinkles. With dry air still in place, but strong warm advection Wednesday, we should see our first above normal day in the upcoming stretch. Highs in the mid to upper 80s should be rather widespread with dry conditions. Wednesday night through Thursday night the building upper ridge is expected to flatten, allowing for energy to ride over the Cornbelt, with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing. While not certain on these details yet, there will be increasing odds for MCS activity in this summer pattern. Roughly 1/2 of the GEFs members show significant rain chances here late week while the 00z EC is quite bullish in showing a stationary front with waves of thunder chances late week through the weekend. That said, the heat we`re discussing at length the past few days, may be limited by this precipitation in the end. Time will tell, and after all these dry well mixed days, rainfall should be welcome in most areas. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 VFR (SKC) conds through this taf cycle. A dry FROPA moving through the area will create gusty northwest winds with gusts to around 30 kts behind the front. The winds will quickly diminish with loss of heating by 01z or 02z this evening. Then overnight into Monday morning north winds will be 10-15 kts. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...Ervin AVIATION...Haase