661
FNUS21 KWNS 081621
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024

Valid 081700Z - 091200Z

The ongoing isolated dry thunderstorm area across New Mexico was
expanded to the north and east. Isolated thunderstorms are expected
to develop this afternoon in association with a small short-wave
trough moving northward on the western periphery of a sub-tropical
ridge.

Additionally, an isolated dry thunderstorm area was added to
portions of eastern Nevada and western Utah. A band of ascent is
seen on mid-level water vapor moving across central Nevada this
morning. This ascent may combine with afternoon heating to result in
isolated thunderstorm development. A very dry airmass in place will
limit widespread precipitation from reaching the ground.

In both of the aforementioned scenarios, only marginally receptive
fuels may limit fuel receptiveness to lightning-induced fire starts.

Elsewhere, please see below for the meteorological reasoning.

..Marsh.. 06/08/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024/

...Synopsis...
A midlevel ridge will remain in place across the Southwest,
supporting continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along
the western portion of the ridge, a modest surface pressure gradient
will contribute to 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds
across parts of southern AZ, southwest NM, and far west TX -- where
fuels are receptive to fire spread. The combination of mid/upper 90s
surface temperatures and single-digit RH amid the breezy surface
winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the
afternoon.

Additionally, a weak/subtle shortwave trough will track northward
along the western periphery of the ridge, promoting isolated
high-based thunderstorms across parts of southern NM and far west TX
during the afternoon -- given sufficient midlevel moisture atop the
deeply mixed boundary layer. Limited rainfall is expected with these
storms, owing to a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile. As a
result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$