Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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053 ACUS01 KWNS 161254 SWODY1 SPC AC 161253 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley, with large hail the primary risk. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes... Multiple convectively enhanced disturbances/MCVs are noted regionally including across Wisconsin and northern Missouri, embedded with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft located over the Dakotas and Canadian Prairies. Shortwave ridging will generally be noted over the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley vicinity today, with strong warm-sector ample destabilization in the wake of early day cloud cover and lingering convection. At least isolated/widely scattered late-day thunderstorm redevelopment is plausible, most likely near a surface low/triple point across northern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan, and potentially along the southwestward-extending cold front along the Minnesota/Iowa border vicinity. Large hail and damaging winds are possible. A few severe storms are also possible farther south into areas such as northern Illinois, potentially influenced by an upstream MCV/prior outflow. A greater coverage of potentially severe storms is expected into the evening and beyond, as the low-level jet refocuses and intensifies across the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust elevated convection exists across portions of Nebraska/South Dakota tonight, and this activity should spread northeastward through the overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg), with large hail as the primary concern with the elevated convection. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/16/2024 $$