359
ACUS01 KWNS 221948
SWODY1
SPC AC 221946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS
INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southwest/west Texas
to western Kentucky.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments required.
Convection across West Texas into central Oklahoma continues to
intensify per GOES IR imagery with further intensification probable
through late afternoon. In general, the Texas Low Rolling Plains and
portions of Ozarks remain relatively more favorable for organized
severe convection due to better diurnal destabilization (MLCAPE has
increased to 1500-2000 J/kg) along and ahead of the front, but
instances of sporadic hail/damaging gusts remain possible across
northwest TX into OK. See the previous discussion below for
additional details.

..Moore.. 09/22/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/

...West Texas to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley...
Within a split flow regime, a southern-stream shortwave trough will
continue generally eastward while tending to weaken over the
south-central High Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
remain common near an east/southeastward-moving cold front that
extends from Lake Michigan southwestward across the middle
Mississippi Valley, with convection also occurring along/behind the
south/southeastward-moving portion of the front that extends from
the Ozarks across Oklahoma toward west/southwest Texas.

Outflows and cloud cover extending into the pre-frontal warm sector
will be factors, but somewhat stronger destabilization (possibly
1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) may occur by peak heating in areas such as
the Texas Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, and potentially parts of
the Ozarks. Moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will
largely parallel the frontal zone, with near/pre-frontal effective
shear limited to 20-30 kt, with an exception being the elevated
convection from west/northwest Texas into Oklahoma where some
stronger cores could produce hail in the post-frontal environment.

Where storms intensify near the front this afternoon, strong to
locally damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph) and some hail (up to around
1 inch in diameter) will be possible through the early part of the
evening.

$$