775
ACUS01 KWNS 120057
SWODY1
SPC AC 120055

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across
parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains.

...Midwest...
Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and
measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has
generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in
the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing
convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support
sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest
deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX
sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential
will diminish overnight.

...Southern High Plains...
Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a
slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster
should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK
Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its
south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective
intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN.

...Central High Plains...
Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a
short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a
transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the
CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e
advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This
should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing
convective wind threat.

..Grams.. 07/12/2025

$$