Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
919 ACUS01 KWNS 060053 SWODY1 SPC AC 060051 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SEVERAL REGIONS OF THE CONUS THIS EVENING...FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, Rio Grande Valley of Texas, and northern Mississippi region. ...01z Update... Strong 500mb speed max is digging southeast across the Dakotas toward northern IL early this evening. Steep lapse rates and weak buoyancy are noted north of the jet across southern MN into central WI. 00z sounding from MPX supports this with SBCAPE around 350 J/kg and deep west-northwesterly flow. Numerous showers/isolated thunderstorms have developed within this regime and gusty winds are common with this convection. This trend will continue for the next several hours into WI before boundary-layer cooling weakens low-level lapse rates. Downstream across the OH Valley into the Delmarva, notable short-wave trough is progressing across southeast MI/OH. Veered LLJ has responded to this feature across the Mid-Atlantic which is aiding low-level warm advection into the Delmarva. A corridor of scattered supercells has evolved along the warm front draped across the Delmarva and this activity will pose some brief tornado risk along with the threat for damaging winds as it spreads across northern DE into southern NJ over the next few hours. Otherwise, gusty winds will be the primary concern with convection as it progresses across the upper OH Valley this evening. An MCS has matured over the central Gulf States early this evening. Latest radar data suggests an organized strong squall line will advance along the leading edge of this complex across northern AL into southern portions of TN later this evening. Some increase in 1km winds is noted across this region so this activity should be maintained for the next several hours as it spreads downstream. Have adjusted severe wind probabilities ahead of the MCS to account for this threat. BRO/CRP soundings are typically capped with high PW values this evening. However, very warm boundary-layer temperatures have contributed to weak CINH and large instability across the middle Rio Grande Valley. Isolated convection should propagate south along the international border with an attendant threat for hail/wind. ..Darrow.. 06/06/2024 $$