Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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127 ACUS01 KWNS 070530 SWODY1 SPC AC 070529 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains region beginning mid afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats. ...Central Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough may be topping the western US ridge over the northern Rockies. This feature is forecast to dig southeast into the High Plains of eastern WY by 18z, then subsequently progress toward the mid Missouri Valley by 08/06z. LLJ is forecast to respond to this feature and increase across the High Plains from western KS into southwest SD by daybreak, then shift east ahead of the progressive short wave. By evening, NAM depicts a 60+kt southwesterly LLJ into northeast KS. In addition, lee surface low will be dislodged off the higher terrain into northwest NE by the start of the period and this low will then track southeast into northwest KS during the mid afternoon before shifting east after sunset. Low-level moisture should increase markedly across the central Plains early due to the aforementioned strengthening LLJ. Latest thinking is scattered thunderstorms will develop within the warm advection corridor over SD/northern NE then grow upscale into a possible MCS. Initial convection will likely be supercellular in nature but clustering and approaching short wave favors a larger complex of storms that would propagate southeast across the central Plains. Very large hail could be noted with supercells but a transition to damaging winds is expected as the MCS matures by early evening. There is some concern this activity may require higher severe probabilities, especially if the moisture returns and this complex of storms evolves as anticipated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/07/2024 $$