Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
138 ACUS01 KWNS 261256 SWODY1 SPC AC 261255 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia and the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene, centered 300-350 miles southwest of Tampa early this morning, will continue to move north-northeast and accelerate over the eastern/northeastern Gulf of Mexico today into tonight, with landfall expected in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. Consult National Hurricane Center forecasts and advisories for more track, intensity, and impact details. Related to Helene`s large size and increasingly fast forward speed, an associated increase of low-level flow/shear will occur across the Florida Peninsula today, southeast Georgia and parts of South Carolina by afternoon, and eventually into parts of North Carolina tonight. Low-level shear (and moisture/buoyancy) is already supportive of a tornado risk in some areas regionally, reference 12z observed soundings from Miami and especially Tampa Bay. However, this tornado-supportive scenario will diurnally increase and expand north-northeastward regionally through the afternoon and evening. Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to develop and persist within Helene`s rain bands. Some tornado potential will reach into parts of North Carolina later tonight. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 09/26/2024 $$