746
ACUS01 KWNS 080544
SWODY1
SPC AC 080543

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid Atlantic.
More isolated activity is expected across portions of the Plains
into the Mid Mississippi Valley.

...Middle Atlantic...

Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a notable short-wave
trough over the upper MS Valley, shifting east in line with latest
model guidance. This feature is forecast to advance into the central
Great Lakes region by the end of the period. As the short wave
advances east, a corridor of higher PW (currently extending from AR
into the upper OH Valley) will be shunted downstream as a
low-amplitude disturbance ejects toward the Mid Atlantic. While some
suppression of the height field can be expected late, it appears the
weak disturbance should be the primary mechanism for encouraging
somewhat stronger southwesterly flow which would extend as far south
as central VA. Even so, 0-6km bulk shear is only expected to be on
the order of 20-25kt, but favorably oriented for clusters and short
line segments. Forecast soundings exhibit poor lapse rates, but
high-water content suggests damaging downbursts are likely,
especially with any organized clusters. Convective temperatures will
be breached by 17-18z as readings climb into the mid 80s, and
scattered thunderstorms should readily develop from central PA into
central VA. This activity will then propagate toward the Mid
Atlantic Coast with an attendant risk for damaging winds.

...Plains/Middle Atlantic...

Upper ridge is forecast to hold across the southwestern U.S. through
the day1 period; although, northwesterly flow is expected to
increase a bit along the eastern periphery of this feature over the
High Plains. As a result, high-level diffluent flow will be noted
across the southern Plains into southern MO. At the surface,
low-level boundaries/convergence will prove weak, and left-over
convective debris will likely prove influential in late-afternoon
development. Early this morning, an MCS was propagating south across
eastern NE/southwest IA. This complex will likely advance into
southeast KS/southwest MO by sunrise. It`s not entirely clear how
organized this cluster will be at the start of the period, but
convective outflow will likely contribute to additional development
later in the day. Strong boundary-layer heating will also aid
isolated thunderstorm development across the High Plains of eastern
WY/CO/NM. This activity will spread southeast during the evening
with a risk for hail/wind.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 07/08/2025

$$