818
ACUS02 KWNS 240601
SWODY2
SPC AC 240559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Plains into
the Midwest and Great Lakes on Tuesday.

...Central/southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great
Lakes...
Due to a relatively wide range of potential outcomes on D1/Monday,
uncertainty remains quite high regarding storm evolution on Tuesday.
However, some organized severe-thunderstorm potential remains
evident from parts of the central Great Plains into the Midwest and
Great Lakes. Some threat could eventually spread southward into
parts of the southern Plains, Ozarks, and Ohio Valley.

An MCS may be ongoing Tuesday morning somewhere across the central
Great Lakes vicinity, with other areas of elevated convection
possibly ongoing across the region. At least an isolated severe
threat may accompany the morning convection. Meanwhile, the cold
front that moves through the Dakotas/Minnesota on Tuesday is
forecast to take on a west-to-east orientation from eastern NE into
central/northern IA to southern WI/northern IL, with potential for
one or more outflow boundaries to the south of this front. Strong to
locally extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE above 3000 J/kg) will likely
develop near/south of the front, in areas that are not overly
influenced by morning convection.

Outside the influence of any MCVs, midlevel west-northwesterly flow
may remain rather modest across the warm sector, but strong enough
to support sufficient effective shear for some storm organization.
It is possible that some areas of ongoing morning convection will
intensify through the day, with isolated to widely scattered
development also possible along the primary front and any remnant
outflow boundaries. Isolated high-based convection may also develop
within a hot and well-mixed regime across western KS.

The favorable thermodynamic environment will support hail potential
with any more discrete convection. Some clustering/upscale growth
will be possible, which could result in one or more corridors of
greater damaging-wind potential. Some severe threat could eventually
spread into parts of the Ohio Valley, Ozarks, and possibly the
southern Plains, though the southern extent of the organized severe
risk remains quite uncertain at this time.

The current Slight Risk is a composite of multiple possible
scenarios, and some adjustments will likely be required depending on
guidance trends and evolution of D1/Monday convection.

..Dean.. 06/24/2024

$$