823
ACUS03 KWNS 150730
SWODY3
SPC AC 150729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday mainly
from the Dakotas into Minnesota.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
On Monday, a lead wave associated with early day storms will move
across the eastern Dakotas and MN and toward Lake Superior by
afternoon, with temporary height rises. Meanwhile, a front will
gradually shift north as the air mass recovers, reaching eastern SD
into central MN and northern WI by late afternoon.

South of this front, a moist air mass will exist with mid to upper
60s F dewpoints and warming temperatures resulting in moderate
instability.

To the west, an upper trough will gradually move across the Rockies
with strengthening mid and high level southwesterlies into the
northern Plains. Winds aloft will be nearly parallel to the surface
front, which should act as the focus for development late in the day
and into the night. Given only gradual height falls, low-level warm
advection aided by 50 kt 850 mb winds looks to be the main lifting
mechanism.

Forecast soundings show strong elevated instability developing north
of the front, which appears favorable for hail. Any organized
clusters in proximity to the boundary and moving parallel to it
could perhaps produce locally damaging gusts as well.

..Jewell.. 06/15/2024

$$