Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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608 FXUS63 KEAX 301940 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 240 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Potential for severe storms Tuesday night as cold front builds southward into the region. Straight line winds is the main threat. - Hot and humid conditions expected on Tuesday. Some spots could approach heat advisory levels, especially south and west of the KC metro. - Additional rounds of storms are expected the second half of the week, with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Surface high pressure centered over the western Great Lakes has lead to cooler and direr air across the region today. This system is expected to shift east, and winds locally will turn clockwise with time. Shortwave across central KS is expected to migrate east into eastern Kansas toward central Missouri this evening. As it pushes east, it expected to work into a less favorable environment, but could see increased cloud cover and perhaps a high based shower. Dry air in the sub- cloud layer will make it difficult for precipitation to reach the surface, but potential is there to see a few sprinkles across eastern Kansas. Tonight, strong low level theta-e advection is expected to develop across the Central Plains. The increasing moisture will lead to precipitable water values quickly returning above 2" across central into eastern KS. Shower and thunderstorm development is expected across central KS. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to build east southeast while low level theta-e advection lifts to the northeast. This is expected to lead to an elongated area of non-severe shower and thunderstorms Monday morning across eastern Kansas into western Missouri, which should weaken with time as it migrates away from the forcing and instability. The extensive cloud cover Monday morning is expected to gradually clear from west to east leading to warming conditions across eastern Kansas into central Missouri. More substantial warming is expected on Tuesday as 30-50 knot low level jet develops Monday night into Tuesday across the Central Plains. This will lead to warm, but breezy conditions on Tuesday. Potential cloud cover across northern Missouri may temper warming some, while skies farther south appear to be mostly clear leading to warm and muggy conditions. NBM probabilities suggest high temperatures exceeding 95 degrees F mainly within the KC metro and areas south and west, potential leading to head advisory conditions in these locations. Cold front associated with a low pressure system moving from central Canada towards the Hudson Bay may approach the region Tuesday night, sagging slowly southward through the midweek. This feature could be the focus for thunderstorm development as a series of shortwaves move east under a speedy upper level jet across the northern tier of the lower 48. The strongest of these waves appears to build into Northern Plains on Thursday, potentially leading to an active 4th of July. Right now, there are north/south differences in the trajectory of this wave amongst the various solutions, making prediction of storm location uncertain. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Weakening shortwave across central KS at 18Z will shift east resulting in increasing upper and mid level cloud cover through the afternoon hours. Could see a few sprinkles through the evening hours with this disturbance passing through. Increasing warm air advection across eastern KS after 06Z tonight could lead to shower and thunderstorm development. These storms will lift east/northeast through the day on Monday, potentially leading to showers and MVFR ceilings at the TAF sites Monday morning. South east winds will increase behind the shower activity, potentially becoming marginally gusty. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BT AVIATION...BT