Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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130 FXUS63 KEAX 280800 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 300 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather conditions and seasonal temperatures expected today through Wednesday. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Thursday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 A quiet morning has graced the area with clear skies and temperatures near normal in the middle 50s to lower 60s. The main weather focus today will be over northeast Missouri this afternoon as a stout embedded shortwave trough dives southeast from eastern Iowa into central Illinois. A couple scattered showers and weak thunderstorms will potentially develop over northeast Missouri, albeit minimal chance for impactful weather today. Otherwise with low relative humidity, near normal temperatures, a light breeze, and abundant sunshine, spectacular weather looks to be enjoyed today - with an encore on Wednesday. Changes towards a more active weather pattern begin on Thursday and generally remain through the end of the forecast period. Surface high pressure shifts slightly east as the upper ridge axis cuts through the CWA. Moisture advection commences during the day, with modest instability returning by Thursday evening. While the approaching upper trough will largely remain well to our northwest and eventually north as it hugs eastward along the Canadian border through the weekend, relatively broad/weak west to southwest flow with several embedded shortwave troughs is projected to reside across the Central Plains. Initial weak isentropic ascent in combination with mid/upper ascent from an approaching perturbation should yield precipitation chances on Thursday. An increasingly moist environment with the aforementioned embedded waves should continue periodic shower and thunderstorm chances Friday into Monday. Overall confidence with respect to the details remains low as the spread of precipitation amounts is fairly large. That said, current model suites suggest two primary windows of the bulk of precipitation; the first being Thursday into early Friday and the second late Sunday into Monday. With wet grounds, some risk for excessive rainfall and subsequent river flooding by Friday with the initial round of convection. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the period. Drier air behind the front has lessened previously mentioned fog concerns for Wed AM. Northwest winds continue through the period becoming gusty during the afternoon. Gust dissipate after sunset tomorrow when wind become light and variable. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Blair AVIATION...Pesel