Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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441 FXUS63 KEAX 141744 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO Issued by National Weather Service Topeka KS 1244 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Low end chances (15%-25%) for showers and a few thunderstorms Sunday along and east of Highway 65. * Chances (30%-40%) for showers and a few thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. No hazardous weather expected. * Above normal temperatures expected the next 7 days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Early this morning the 500mb remnant low from Francine is located over northeastern Arkansas. This low will move very slowly east to the northern Mississippi/Alabama border by tonight. This will continue to push wrap around cloud cover into the area today although conditions will remain dry. Expect highs to reach the low to mid 80s. Sunday the upper low associated with the remnants of Francine will become elongated across the southeastern CONUS and extending back into the eastern CWA due o a Rex block over the eastern CONUS. A 700 mb vort max is expected to move through the eastern CWA on Sunday which will bring low end chances (15%-25%) for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Highs Sunday will range from the low to mid 80s. Monday and Tuesday will be a transitional period for the upper level pattern as the Rex block over the eastern CONUS breaks down and we move to a Omega blocking pattern with a upper low over the Ohio River Valley and another over California by Wednesday. Although lead shortwaves will try to reach the western CWA Monday and Tuesday conditions are expected to remain dry with surface high pressure in control. High Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 80s. Again, by Wednesday the upper level pattern will feature a omega block with the aforementioned upper lows of the Ohio River Valley and California. Over the local region will exist weak upper level ridging. Upper level lead shortwaves from the California low as it moves into the Great Basin Wednesday into Thursday will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms into the western CWA. The model blend has introduced 30-40% POPs for Wednesday and Thursday however that may be bullish considering the strengthening upper level ridge over the region and the persistence of recent drought conditions. Highs Wednesday will be in the low to mid 80s however, height rises on Thursday will aid in highs reaching the mid 80s to near 90. Friday into Saturday the upper level low over the Great Basin moves through the eastern Rockies and into the western Plains becoming an open wave which eventually breaks down the upper level ridge in place. This may finally bring the next real chance for showers and thunderstorms next weekend. Highs Friday will remain in the mid 80s to near 90 before finally abating a bit by Saturday as better storm chances return with highs in the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 MVFR stratus will continue to scatter out over the next few hours with scattered cu and cirrus for the remainder of the afternoon. Winds will persist out of the east/southeast today, mainly 10 mph or below. Mostly clear skies should continue into the overnight hours as surface ridging stalls to our northeast. Some shallow ground fog could develop based off a few forecast soundings, but confidence in development and how widespread it will be this far west remains low, so kept it out of the TAFs at this time. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...Griesemer