771
FXUS63 KEAX 192315
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
615 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers with some thunderstorms continue along the MO/KS
state line as well as areas north of I-70. No severe weather is
anticipated. Some areas of flooding around creeks, streams, and
urban areas is possible.

- Heat and humidity continue for the next several days with high
temperatures in the 90s and heat index values approaching 100F.
Temperatures in the upper 90s and heat index values around 100-105F
are possible early next week.

- Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible
  Saturday evening into Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

A weak cold front draped across the region is bringing a dichotomy
of temperatures across the area with rain cooled far NW MO reaching
the mid to upper 70s while area across our SE (such as Sedalia and
Boonville) see highs once again approach 90 degrees. As the low
associated with the cold front takes a more northerly trajectory, the
front has stalled out across NW MO. This combined with the steady
warm air advection across the eastern portions of the CWA keeps the
thermal boundary present through out the day. This differential
heating in conjunction with general upper level divergence keeps
chances for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms around
through the afternoon and evening. CAM models have been dragging the
cold front slowly eastward with a shield of precipitation moving
northeastward parallel to the boundary. This keeps precipitation
chances along the I-35 corridor throughout the evening. Along with
the frontally driven precipitation, isentropic ascent across the
warm sector has catalyzed showers and thunderstorms across areas
north of I-70. PWAT values in excess of 1-1.5 inches suggest the
potential for efficient, heavy downpours. This will potentially lead
to some areas of flooding especially along creeks and streams as
well as impervious urban areas. We will have to monitor portions of
NW MO which received and estimated 2.5-3 inches of rainfall this
morning as further storms could create potential for flooding. So
far runoff has been fairly efficient and the transient nature of the
heavy bands of precipitation have mitigated flooding concerns so far.

Both areas of precipitation are expected to persist through sunset
when differential heating is lost and general stability increases.
Interactions between the residual boundary, 850mb flow, and upper
level shortwaves may initiate further scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms overnight along the I-35 corridor. Optimistic models
keep precipitation chances around through sunrise Thursday across
far northern MO; however, once that concludes, the remainder of the
week looks dry, hot, and humid. The high pressure that has been
sitting over the eastern CONUS for the past several day retrogrades
westward. Highs return to the 90s and dew points pushing above 70F.
Hot and humid conditions first peak on Saturday as low level flow
transits itself into a more SW to NE orientation as the high moves
west. A LLJ max Saturday amplifies warm air advection into the
region pushing heat index values to or above 100F. An upper level
shortwave trough looks to bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms primarily overnight Saturday into Sunday. Once again
PWAT values suggest heavy rainfall and potential flooding being the
primary hazards. convective variables look rather benign at this
juncture, but chances for strong to severe storms cannot be ruled
out.

After the wave passes Sunday morning, the trend of hot and humid
conditions turns it up a notch early next week as air temperatures
look to approach the upper 90s to 100F with heat index values around
100-105F. Long range guidance shows the high pressure continuing its
westward transit across the CONUS stalling out across the desert SW.
NW flow across flow across the right side of the high usually yields
somewhat calmer flow; however, embedded, shortwaves within the upper
level flow along with the generally unstable air brought about by
the heat and humidity may present some more opportunities for
precipitation late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

At 23z, scattered showers are moving away from the KC Metro,
with a stray thunderstorm or two located towards the southeast.
MVFR/IFR ceilings projected at TAF sites north of I70 until
tomorrow morning. Current guidance is optimistic on ceilings
lifting tomorrow morning, so including higher ceilings sometime
around 13-15z at all TAF sites.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...SPG/BT