Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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605 FXUS63 KEAX 222341 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 641 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms expected late this evening. A few strong storms possible with damaging winds being the main concern. - Hot and humid conditions expected through next week...with dangerous heat possible Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 212 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 The upper levels are defined by a large ridge over southern CONUS with zonal westerly flow over the region. There is a weak trough over the central Plains with a weak jet max rounding the base of the trough (winds up to 70 knots) over NE. In the lower levels, there is a surface high over southeastern CONUS. A leeside low has developed to our west and moved over eastern KS/NE. Southwesterly winds have lead to modest warm and moist air advection with a warmer, more moist air mass to our south. This is shown in high temperatures forecasted to be in the low to mid 90s and dew points in the low to mid 70s. As the high pressure stagnates in southeast CONUS, expect high temperatures to remain in 90s through next week. Tonight, the surface low is expected to move northeast over the NE/IA border. The associated cold front is oriented from the northeast to the southwest. It extends from southwest IA to the OK panhandle. A line of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary late this evening. Storms will develop in northeast MO and extend back into eastern KS along the surface front. Strong to severe storms are possible with strong instability. Even though CAPE values range from 2,500-3,000 J/kg, 700-500mb lapse rates stay around 6.5 degrees (fairly stable) which may hinder hail growth. Bulk shear values stay around 30 knots and a low level jet sets up which could aid a wind threat. Additionally, PWAT values between 2.0-2.5 inches suggest a potential for heavy rainfall. This may be another concern if storms begin to train or last in duration however, it appears that they should be progressive enough. The GFS has remained fairly consistent with yesterday`s guidance which adds some confidence. At this time, strong to damaging winds seem to be the main threat with hail as a secondary threat. These showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to be out of the area early Sunday morning. For the second half of the weekend expect heat indices to near 100 degrees F. A warming trend is expected for the start of next week as heat indices are expected to exceed 100 degrees F. At this time, heat advisories appear likely for Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday, winds shift to the north and provide a little relief from the triple digit heat indices. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop along a frontal boundary which should be in the vicinity of the terminals from 00Z-03Z. This may lead to a temporary reduction of visibility. Winds will shift out of the north with the frontal passage. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Collier AVIATION...Collier