Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
217 FXUS66 KEKA 151149 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 449 AM PDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry weather is expected through the weekend. Interior temperatures continue to drop below seasonal normals this weekend. Breezy to windy westerly to northwesterly winds this afternoon and evening, with much stronger winds are expected this Sunday evening into Monday. && .DISCUSSION...Stratus has intruded most interior valleys in Humboldt and Del Norte early this morning, and extends well up the Eel River valley into Mendocino. This cloud should mix out by late morning. Latest satellite WV imagery is showing a large longwave trough currently in place over the PNW, and this feature will aid in continuing a cooling trend today and Sunday, with afternoon highs forecasted to remain around 5 to 10 degrees below climatological normal. NW winds are expected to pick up again across the area this afternoon, albeit weaker than yesterday`s, then weaken again tonight. A few weak shortwaves move through this feature this weekend and early next week, the most potent of these is forecast to drift onshore Sunday afternoon. The primary concern with this feature looks to be wind, and gusts from 25 to 35 mph are likely across Lake and southern Mendocino counties, and latest NBM ensemble guidance is indicating a chance (20 to 30%) of gusts exceeding 40 mph at Cow Mtn and near Cobb in Lake County. With afternoon RH values forecast to reach the low 20 to teens each afternoon this weekend, there exists a slight risk for rapid spread of grass fires on Sunday. See Fire Wx section for more details. Otherwise, slightly cooler air and continued dry conditions with clear skies should result in chilly overnight temperatures once winds decouple. There is a chance (20 to 40%) for brief morning frost in the colder valleys of Trinity and eastern Humboldt counties Sunday night. Precip chances have dried up with recent guidance, with general consensus that approaching moisture with this shortwave will split offshore on Sunday and miss NWRN CA to the north and south...with less than a 5% chance of one hundredth of an inch in Del Norte and Humboldt counties. Afternoon high temperatures are forecast to slowly trend back toward climatological normals next week, with longwave troughing continuing aloft well into the work week. && .AVIATION...Spotty areas of stratus will continue along coastal areas into mid morning. By early afternoon, gusty north to north-westerly winds will pick up helping to clear out most stratus. Gusty north to north-westerly winds will affect interior terminals, such as UKI through today. Winds at most terminals will die down this evening as stratus has the potential to affect coastal terminals again late tonight, though it is expected to be less expansive. && .MARINE...Small craft advisory conditions will continue this morning for the southern zones. Steep square waves have mellowed in the northern inner and outer waters. Expect a return to small craft advisory conditions by Sunday morning for the northern waters as steep square waves fill back in at 6 to 7 feet, in as many seconds of period. Gales in the southern waters will return by 19z this afternoon after a brief reprieve of small craft advisory conditions. Plan accordingly as the sea state will be unsettled and conditions oscillate between Small Craft and Gales in the Southern inner and outer waters through the weekend. /EYS /JLW && .FIRE WEATHER...Breezy to windy west to northwest winds are expected to develop Sunday, with better chances of more frequent gusts, and a chance (20 to 30%) for gusts to reach above 40 mph at Cow Mtn and Cobb in Lake County. Dry conditions with low daytime RH`s in the 20`s and teens are expected to continue through the foreseeable future, primarily in Lake and Trinity counties, and interior Mendocino. The strong winds and low humidity will yield an elevated fire weather threat Sunday, particularly for the south and east side of Lake County. A Red Flag Warning remains in zone 264 (southern Lake), from late Saturday through early Monday, primarily for the possibility of rapid spreading grass fires. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Red Flag Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Monday for CAZ264. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ450-470. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ455-475. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ475. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png