Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 282305
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
305 PM PST Sun Feb 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry weather with temperatures near seasonal
normal values through Wednesday. Precipitation chances will increase
late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure directly overhead is supporting another
sunny day across northwest California, with lighter winds and
seasonable temperatures in the 50s at the coast and the 60s across
many interior locations. Expect similar conditions to prevail for
the first half of the coming week as an upper level trough over the
NE Pacific evolves into a closed low and drifts southward off of the
CA coast. This may bring some increasing high cloud cover to NW CA
for Monday, but any precipitation associated with the passing low
should remain well offshore through mid week. Clear skies and light
winds tonight will result in come chilly Monday morning lows as
temperatures dip into the 30s across much of the area. Will
therefore kick off March and the spring growing season with some
frost and freeze headlines across Lake and much of interior
Mendocino County, with a few more chilly nights looking likely into
the middle of the week. Beyond Wednesday, there is growing consensus
among both deterministic and ensemble guidance for increased
troughing over the West Coast during the latter half of the week.
Despite some notable differences in the finer details, this generally
points to a cooler and cloudier pattern across NW CA in the
extended term, with increasing chances for precipitation from
Thursday through next weekend. /CB

&&

.AVIATION...The coastal terminals have remained in MVFR/VFR
categories. Haze has returned to KCEC and could persist into the
evening as it has done for the past few nights. Winds have eased in
comparison to yesterday and will remain at a light breeze for the
TAF period. Low clouds may form offshore late tonight, possibly
pushing toward the coast north of Cape Mendocino and impacting
coastal terminals early Monday morning...however confidence is
currently low on whether or not these clouds will reach the coast or
even materialize. /EYS

&&

.MARINE...Winds and seas continue to weaken today, with seas
dropping below 10 ft across all zones by this evening. Winds should
remain light northerly tonight before switching to southerly early
Monday as a cutoff low slides southward down the West Coast. Latest
model guidance has pushed this cutoff low farther offshore,
significantly weakening the northerlies filling back in behind it
during Monday night and Tuesday...thus there is potential for sub-
advisory level winds to persist through mid-week. A more robust
trough is then set to approach the coast late this week, possibly
bringing moderate southerlies.

The next mid-period NW swell is expected to fill in during Tuesday,
peaking around 11 ft at 14 seconds Tuesday evening then decaying
through Wednesday. Another mid-period NW swell of similar size and
direction should move through late this week as well. /TDJ /EYS

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM PST Monday for
     CAZ110-113-115.

     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM PST Monday for
     CAZ111-114.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...None.

&&

$$

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