546
AXPZ20 KNHC 170948
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jun 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central America and southern Mexico Heavy Rainfall Event:
A broad area of low pressure persists over northern Central
America and southern Mexico. This weather pattern, known as a
Central American Gyre (CAG), a southwest flow draws abundant
moisture from the Pacific Ocean into the coastal terrain of
Central America and southern Mexico. This pattern will persist at
least through midweek, enhancing heavy rainfall and strong
thunderstorms. This can cause life-threatening conditions that
include flooding and mudslides. Numerous heavy showers and
thunderstorms have already impacted the coasts of Guatemala and
the Mexican state of Chiapas. The main areas impacted by the
heavy rainfall will be northwest Nicaragua, southwest Honduras,
El Salvador, coastal sections of Guatemala and the Mexican state
of Chiapas. Additionally, dangerous surf conditions will impact
these coastal areas through the next few days. Please refer to
your local meteorological and emergency management office
bulletins for more detailed information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends southwestward from the coast of
Guerrero State in Mexico through 13N115W to 07N128W. An ITCZ
continues westward from 07N128W to beyond 07N140W. Numerous
moderate to scattered strong convection is noted south of the
monsoon trough in the offshore waters of Chiapas and Oaxaca
States of Mexico from 13N to 17N between 90W and 100W. Scattered
moderated convection is seen farther west from 09N to 12N
between 101W and 112W...and near the ITCZ from 05N to 08N west of
137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on heavy
rainfall.

Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section above for convection in
the area. A surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1027 mb
high near 32N142W to west of Baja California Sur near 21N117W.
Fresh with locally strong NW to N winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft
exist west of Baja California Norte, while moderate to fresh NW
to N winds with 6 to 8 ft seas are present west of Baja
California Sur. Moderate to locally fresh W to NW winds and seas
at 5 to 7 ft are seen across the offshore waters of central
Mexico. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and 2 to 4 ft seas
dominate the Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh with locally
strong WSW to W winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are found offshore of
Oaxaca and Chiapas States of southern Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds, rough to very
rough seas, and numerous heavy showers and strong thunderstorms
will impact the offshore waters of southern Mexico through Fri,
primarily off Chiapas, Oaxaca and southeastern Guerrero. This
inclement weather is associated with a broad area of low pressure
over the region known as the Central American Gyre. Dangerous
surf is also anticipated through Thu along the coastal areas of
this region. Farther north, fresh to strong NW winds and very
rough seas will persist off Baja California Norte through Tue
morning, primarily beyond 120 nm offshore. Large swell of 8 to 10
ft will linger in these waters mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro
through this evening before gradually subsiding through Tue
night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on heavy
rainfall.

Fresh to strong SW to W monsoonal winds along with seas at 8 to
11 ft, and widely scattered moderate convection are evident at
the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Moderate to
fresh SW winds with 6 to 9 ft seas and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring offshore of Nicaragua. Near the Galapagos Islands and
west of Ecuador, gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas at
6 to 8 ft are noted. Mainly gentle southerly winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas prevail for the rest of the offshore waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds, rough to very
rough seas and numerous heavy showers and strong thunderstorms
will persist through Fri across the offshore waters of northern
Central America, associated with a broad area of low pressure
known as a Central American Gyre. Dangerous surf is also
anticipated through Thu along the coastal areas of this region.
Farther south, rough seas in moderate to large southerly swell
will continue near the Galapagos Islands and offshore of Ecuador
through Tue night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the
region. Broad ridging associated with a 1027 mb high near
32N142W dominates the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough. North of 20N and west of 110W, moderate to fresh N to NE
winds and 6 to 9 ft seas in large NW to N swell are present,
except near 29N122W where winds are fresh to strong with 9 to 11
ft seas. From the ITCZ and monsoon trough to 20N and west of
110W, winds are gentle to moderate with 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed
swell. East of 110W, SW to W winds are moderate to fresh with 6
to 9 ft seas in large SW swell. South of 07N, southerly winds are
mostly gentle to moderate and seas are 5 to 7 ft seas in
moderate southerly swell.

For the forecast, the high pressure and related ridge will
gradually weaken starting midweek, which should allow winds and
seas north of 20N to slowly subside after midweek. will dominate
waters west of 120W into the weekend. East of 110W, SW to W winds
are going to increase to between fresh to strong with seas
building to between 8 and 10 ft by Tue. Scattered moderate
convection is expected to continue near the monsoon trough through
at least midweek. Seas of 7 to 8 ft will hover around 03S west of
the Galapagos Islands through Fri.

$$

Chan