019
AXPZ20 KNHC 310357
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri May 31 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 90W moving westward at 10 to
15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
seen within 60 nm west of the tropical wave axis from 08N to
10N. Some slow development of this system is possible through the
weekend and early next week while it moves slowly westward well
to the south of the coast of Mexico. There is a low probability
of tropical cyclone development.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia to
09N84W to 10N84W to 10N102W to 09N115W. The ITCZ extends
from 09N115W to 08N123W to 07N132W and to beyond 07N140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within
120 nm south of the ITCZ between 126W and 134W, and within
60 nm south of the trough between 89W and 91W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the trough between
87W and 89W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails west of the Baja California peninsula. The
pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and a trough
over north central Mexico is supporting moderate to locally fresh
winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle
winds prevail over the remainder of the discussion waters. Seas
are in the 6-9 ft range in NW swell off Baja California Norte,
and 6 ft off Baja California Sur. Elsewhere over the open waters
off Mexico, seas are in the 4-5 ft range. Seas of 3 ft or less
are found over the Gulf of California. Hazy conditions persist
off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to
agricultural fires over southern Mexico and Central America.
Visibilities may decrease at times to 3 nm or less.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail
off the Baja California peninsula through early next week.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail across the open
waters. Seas will build to 9 ft in long period NW swell off of
Baja California Norte tonight through Mon. Hazy conditions may
persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
due to agricultural fires over S Mexico and Central America.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh east gap winds prevail across the Gulf of
Papagayo region. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon
trough. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range in the Gulf of Papagayo,
and 4-6 ft elsewhere. Hazy conditions continue off the Central
American coast due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico and
Central America. Visibilities may decrease at times to 3 nm or
less.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E gap winds are expected across
the Papagayo region through early Sat. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds will prevail for the next several days. Hazy skies
from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico and Central
America may reduce visibilities over portions of the Central
American offshore waters the next few days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails N of 20N. The pressure gradient between
the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to
fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to
near 20N and W of 120W. Northerly swell is producing seas of 8-9
ft to the waters N of 28N between 120W and 125W. Moderate winds,
and seas of 5-6 ft, are elsewhere N of 20N. Gentle to moderate
winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough.
Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail S of the
ITCZ/monsoon trough.

For the forecast, little change is expected to the current
conditions over much of the area the next few days.

$$
Aguirre