Tropical Weather Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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491 AXPZ20 KNHC 212147 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jun 21 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in northern Central America and the Mexican State of Chiapas: The broad circulation associated with the remnants of Alberto is expected to produce additional heavy rainfall across the Pacific coast of far southern Mexico, southern Guatemala, El Salvador, western Honduras and western Nicaragua. This heavy rainfall can cause life- threatening conditions that include flooding and mudslides. Expect the heavy rainfall to continue through this evening. Please refer to your local meteorological and emergency management office bulletins for more detailed information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W to 15N96W to 10N115W to 09N126W. The ITCZ extends from 09N126W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 16N between 90W and 101W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 109W and 131W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on an ongoing heavy rainfall event. Scattered showers associated with the remnants of Alberto are emerging off the coast of Sinaloa into the southern Gulf of California and the Baja California Sur offshore waters. Meanwhile, latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh NW winds prevailing across the Baja California offshore water. Seas range 6 to 8 ft within NW swell. Farther south, moderate to locally fresh SW winds are likely occurring in the southern Mexico offshore waters, particularly off Chiapas and Oaxaca. Seas continue to be rough and range 8 to 9 ft. This is where showers and thunderstorms are still occurring. Across the rest of the southern and southwest Mexico offshore waters, winds are light to gentle with seas 4 to 7 ft. Gentle with locally moderate southerly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft dominate the Gulf of California. For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to improve through tonight off the southern Mexico offshore waters. Fresh winds will diminish by tonight and rough seas are expected to subside below 8 ft by Sat morning. Scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms and dangerous surf will continue to impact the southern Mexico offshore waters through this evening, primarily off Chiapas and Oaxaca. To the north, fresh NW winds and rough seas are expected over the Baja California offshore waters through tonight. Conditions across the Mexico offshore waters will improve this weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on an ongoing heavy rainfall event. Moderate to locally fresh SW to W monsoonal winds and 8 to 10 ft seas continue across the offshore waters of Guatemala El Salvador and Nicaragua. Gentle to moderate SW winds along with seas at 5 to 7 ft within S swell are noted across the rest of the Central America and Colombia offshore waters. Farther south, gentle to moderate southerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly swell exist near the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. For the forecast, winds and seas will begin to improve today and into tonight. Moderate to locally fresh winds off the Central American offshore waters will diminish by this evening, and seas will subside below 8 ft by Sat morning. Heavy showers and strong thunderstorms as well as dangerous surf will persist across the offshore waters of Guatemala, El Salvador and northwestern Nicaragua through tonight. Meanwhile, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are anticipated off Costa Rica and Panama into the weekend. Farther south, moderate to rough seas in moderate southerly swell will continue near the Galapagos Islands and offshore of Ecuador into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge extends southeastward to the Baja California offshore waters from a 1030 mb high pressure centered NW of the area near 36N153W. The latest scatterometer data show that the associated gradient is supporting gentle to moderate N to NE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft north of ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 115W. East of 115W and north of 05N, fresh SW to NW monsoonal winds and seas at 8 to 10 ft are present. South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, gentle to moderate SE to S winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in moderate southerly swell dominate. For the forecast, monsoonal winds and seas east of 115W and north of 06N will gradually decrease through tonight into Sat. Otherwise, little overall changes are expected through early next week. $$ AReinhart