367
AXPZ20 KNHC 120353
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jul 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W from 05N northward into
the Caribbean Sea, moving westward around 15 kt. Nearby
convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 95W from 05N to 15N, moving
westward around 5 to 10 kt. Nearby convection is described in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 111W from 06N to 17N, moving
westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 121.5W from 05N to 16N,
moving westward around 15 kt. Nearby convection is described in
the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 131W from 06N to 16N, moving
slowly westward around 5 kt. Nearby convection is described in
the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N132W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N132W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is occurring from 05N to 14N between
83W to 105W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the northern Gulf of California
through the Baja California Peninsula. Fresh to locally strong S
to SE winds are noted across the central and northern Gulf as a
result of the pressure gradient between this trough and ridging
to the east. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted in this region.
Otherwise, ridging extends over the remainder of the Mexico
offshore waters, supporting gentle to moderate NW winds and 5 to
7 ft seas in NW swell offshore of Baja, and gentle to moderate
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in S swell over the southern Mexico
waters.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong S to SE winds are
expected across the northern and central Gulf of California
through Sat morning as surface troughing dominates the region.
Winds will diminish for the rest of this weekend before locally
fresh winds redevelop early next week. Elsewhere, moderate N
winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into early next week.
Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
expected over the remainder of the waters into next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong E to NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are
noted in the Gulf of Papagayo, supported by low pressure over
northern Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh E winds extend
beyond the Papagayo region to areas well offshore of El Salvador
and Guatemala. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds
are occurring south of the monsoon trough. A long period
southern hemisphere swell is leading to seas of 5 to 7 ft across
the regional waters, and seas to 8 ft well offshore of Ecuador,
including areas south of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to NE winds are expected in
the Gulf of Papagayo into early Sat afternoon, with pulsing
moderate winds likely for the remainder of the weekend. Winds
will restrengthen to fresh to strong speeds early next week.
Elsewhere, locally rough seas offshore of Ecuador will subside
through Sat morning. A new S to SW swell will move through the
equatorial waters Sun into early next week, promoting rough seas
south of 05N. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SW
winds will occur south of the monsoon trough through early next
week, with gentle to moderate winds occurring to the north.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are occurring north of
the ITCZ and monsoon trough as ridging prevails over the region.
Seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed N and SE swell are noted in this area.
Elsewhere, a southern hemisphere swell is promoting rough seas
of 8 to 9 ft south of 05N and west of 120W, and south of the
equator east of 120W. Moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds are
occurring over these waters.

For the forecast, ridging will continue to dominate the waters
north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ into next week, supporting
moderate to occasionally fresh N to NE winds. Moderate seas in
mixed N and SE swell are expected in this area, with locally
rough seas possible north of 28N as a new N swell moves into the
northern waters this weekend. Elsewhere, rough seas in the
equatorial waters will temporarily subside on Sat before a new S
swell moves through the southern waters by Sun. Expect rough
seas south of 06N into the middle of next week.

$$
ADAMS