459
AXPZ20 KNHC 250915
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Sep 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An area of low pressure, partially associated with the remnants of
John, is producing a large area of shower and thunderstorm activity
along and offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. A 1001 mb low
center is embedded within the area of low pressure near 16N103W.
In addition to aforementioned showers and thunderstorms, numerous
strong thunderstorms are within 180 nm of the low in the W
semicircle, and within 90 nm of the low in the E semicircle. Strong
to near gale winds southwest winds are south of the low with
significant wave heights of 12 to 14 ft. The shower and
thunderstorm activity is showing signs of organization, and
environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development. A tropical depression is now likely to form in the
next day or two, as long as the system remains over water.
Interests in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system. Regardless of development, this system is expected to
produce heavy rainfall with the potential for flash flooding and
mudslides over a large portion of southern Mexico this week. This
system has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during
the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

A Central American Gyre will continue to produce periods of
excessive rainfall over southern Mexico and Central America for
the remainder of the week, as well as the adjacent western
Caribbean and eastern Pacific waters between 80W and 95W. This
scenario, combined with daytime heating and orographic lifting,
could produce dangerous flash flooding and mudslides across the
area. Furthermore, strong to near gale force winds, rough seas
and heavy thunderstorms are forecast to affect the offshore
waters between Costa Rica and Guatemala through the end of the
week. Please follow the forecasts from your local weather offices
for more detailed information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis is southwest of the Special Features
1001 mb low that is near 16N103W. It extends from 13N106W to
14N118W to 11N130W and to beyond 10N140W. Aside from convection
related to the trough and low pressure offshore Mexico and the
Central American Gyre, scattered moderate convection is seen
within 120 nm south of the trough between 106W and 110W, and
within 60 nm south of the trough between 116W and 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for
information on low pressure offshore Mexico that has potential
for tropical cyclone formation and on the Central American Gyre
(CAG).

High pressure ridging extends into the area from 30N140W
southeastward to near 21N122W. Moderate to fresh northwest winds
are over the offshore waters of Baja California along with
seas of 4 to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds are over the Gulf of
California, where seas are 1 to 3 ft, except for higher seas
of 3 to 4 ft over the southern section and 4 to 6 ft at the
entrance to the Gulf. To the south of the Gulf, latest ASCAT
satellite data passes reveal strong to near gale southwest
winds from 10N to 16N between 98W and 104W. Seas with these
winds are 11 to 14 ft. Fresh to strong southwest winds are
elsewhere from 08N to 16N between 97W and 105W, and from
08N to 14N between 105W and 115W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft with
these winds.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southwest to west winds will
continue through Fri, mainly south of 16N between 95W and 105W.
Winds will slowly diminish below strong speeds on Sat, and
diminish further on Sun. Periods of near gale force winds will be
possible through Thu. Rough to locally very rough seas are
expected off the coasts of Guerrero and Oaxaca through at least
Fri, before they begin to slowly subside. Elsewhere, mostly
fresh northwest winds and moderate seas will occur across the
remainder of the Mexican offshore waters through Sat, with the
exception of the Gulf of California, where winds will remain
light to gentle.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for
information on the Central American Gyre (CAG).

Moderate to fresh southwest winds are over the offshore waters
of Central America, while moderate south to southwest winds are
over offshore waters of Colombia and Ecuador. Seas of 6 to 9 ft
in long-period west swell are over the Guatemala and El Salvador
offshore waters. Seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere over the Central
American offshore waters. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are over the majority of the offshore waters.
Some of this activity may produce strong gusty winds rough seas.

For the forecast, mostly fresh southwest to west winds will
continue over the offshore waters north of Costa Rica today
before diminishing to gentle to moderate speeds. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate southwest winds will continue over the
forecast waters through the forecast period. Seas will subside
slightly north of Costa Rica toward the end of the week.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
over most of the offshore waters through the rest of the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Fresh to strong southwest to west winds and rough seas are south
of the monsoon trough from 08N to 14N east of about 115W. Seas
with these winds are 8 to 10 ft. Moderate to fresh south to
southwest winds are elsewhere south of the monsoon trough along
with seas of 5 to 6 ft. ASCAT satellite data passes from last
night indicated gentle to moderate north to northeast winds
elsewhere. Latest satellite altimeter data passes display seas
of 5 to 6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong southwest to west winds
that are south of the monsoon trough will gradually begin to
diminish in coverage starting Fri. Seas will be slow in subsiding
with these winds. Otherwise, little change is expected elsewhere
going into Sat.

$$
Aguirre