386
AXPZ20 KNHC 232321 CCA
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jun 23 2024

Corrected to include Tropical Waves section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a western Caribbean is along 83W reaching southward
into the eastern Pacific to near 04N. It is moving westward at
10-15 kt. Isolated showers are near the southern part of the
wave. Deep convection ahead of the wave is described below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N88W to 14N95W to 11N110W to
09N121W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 60 nm of the trough between 116W and 119W
and between 127W and 130W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
within 60 nm south of the trough between 88W and 90W, and within
60 nm of the trough between 132W and 138W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak trough located west of Baja California is analyzed from
near 28.7N123W to 23N113W. This features is helping to maintain
a relatively weak pressure gradient across the Mexican offshore
waters that supports gentle to moderate breezes over the region.
Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft over these waters. A ship with call
sign ID "ZDRG3" recently reported combined seas of 5 ft near
15N102W. Seas are 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California.
Isolated light showers are possible near the southern portion of
the trough.

For the forecast, the relatively weak gradient over the area
will generally maintain gentle to moderate breezes and moderate
combined seas across the Mexican offshore waters through the
middle of next week. Winds will become west to northwest at fresh
to strong speeds just offshore Cabo San Lucas starting Mon night
and continuing well into the upcoming week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are over the
offshore waters of Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua as deep
atmospheric moisture remains present over this part of the
eastern Pacific along with the favorable factor of diffluent flow
aloft helping to sustain it. Latest satellite imagery shows less
coverage of the shower and thunderstorm activity than had been
observed during the past few days. Meanwhile, a weak pressure
pattern is supporting gentle to moderate breezes and moderate
combined seas with a component of southwest long-period swell
across the region.

An area of numerous showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the
wave from 06N to 10N between 85W and 90W. This activity is being
enhanced by an inverted mid to upper-level trough that is ahead
of the tropical wave described above.

For the forecast, the rather weak pressure pattern over the
region will continue through the middle of next week and will
support generally gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate wave heights.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge centered on 1029 mb high pressure well
north-northeast of Hawaii dominates the basin west of 120W.
Moderate to fresh winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident west of
about 125W as seen in the latest available altimeter satellite
passes over that part of the area. The altimeter data shows
slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft north of 24N and west of
126W. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted east of 125W. An area
of 8 ft seas primarily due to southeast long-period southeast to
south swell, and to some extent wind waves from persistent fresh
southeast winds is present over the central part of the area
from 03N to 09N between 108W and 122W as seen in ASCAT satellite
data passes. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas are
noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the seas to 8 ft are forecast to subside
on Mon. Otherwise, little change is expected elsewhere.

$$
Aguirre