045
AXPZ20 KNHC 190357
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jun 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central America and southern Mexico Heavy Rainfall Event:
Potential Tropical Cyclone One (PTC One) over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico continues to sustain convergent monsoonal winds
and draw abundant moisture from the Pacific Ocean into the
coastal terrain of southern Mexico and northern sections of
Central America. This can cause life-threatening conditions that
include flooding and mudslides. Areas expecting the heaviest
rainfall through Fri continue to be El Salvador, western
Honduras, far western Nicaragua and coastal areas of southern
Mexico and Guatemala. Additionally, dangerous surf conditions
will impact these coastal areas through the next few days. Please
refer to your local meteorological and emergency management
office bulletins for more detailed information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends southwestward from just offshore the
Mexican state of Guerrero through 10N121W to 07N138W. An ITCZ
runs westward from 07N138W to beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate
to scattered strong convection is seen near the trough from
north of 14N between 93W and 96W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted near and south of the trough from 10N to 14N between
90W and 111W, and from 06N to 11N between 117W and 129W, and
from 05N to 06N west of 136W. This includes the offshore waters
of Guatemala and El Salvador.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a
heavy rainfall event.

Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the
region. Potential Tropical Cyclone One mentioned in the Special
Features section continues to sustain fresh to strong southwest
to west winds and 8 to 11 ft seas over the offshore waters of
Oaxaca and Chiapas States in southern Mexico. Meanwhile, moderate
to fresh northwest winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in lingering
northwest west of Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate west
to northwest winds along with 6 to 7 ft seas are near Baja
California Sur. Slightly higher seas of 7 to 9 ft due to
southwest to west swell are offshore central Mexico. Gentle to
moderate southerly winds along with seas of 1 to 3 ft are present
over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds, rough to very
rough seas, and numerous heavy showers and strong thunderstorms
will impact the offshore waters of southern Mexico through Fri,
primarily off Chiapas, Oaxaca and southeastern Guerrero States.
Dangerous surf is also anticipated along the coastal areas of
this region until Fri evening. Lingering NW swell west of Baja
California, mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro will gradually
subside through tonight. From Wed evening through Fri morning,
fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas should develop near Baja
California Sur, including the waters near Cabo San Lucas as
pressure gradient increases.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a
heavy rainfall event.

Convergent SW to W winds along with abundant tropical moisture
are creating scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms in
the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. Refer to
the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for additional convection in the
region.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One mentioned in the Special Features
section is sustaining fresh to strong southwest to west winds
and seas of 8 to 11 ft over the offshore waters of Guatemala and
7 to 9 ft seas over the offshore waters of El Salvador. Gentle to
moderate southwest to west winds are over the rest of the
Central America waters. Gentle to moderate southwest winds are
over the offshore waters of Colombia. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in
southwest to west swell over the rest of the Central American
waters and 5 to 7 ft over the offshore waters of Colombia. Gentle
to moderate southerly winds are over the offshore waters of
Colombia and waters near the Galapagos Islands. Seas over these
waters are 6 to 8 ft in south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds, rough to very
rough seas and numerous heavy showers and strong thunderstorms
will persist across the offshore waters of northern Central
America through Fri. Dangerous surf is also anticipated along the
coastal areas of this region until Fri evening. Farther south,
moderate to rough seas in moderate to large southerly swell will
continue near the Galapagos Islands and offshore of Ecuador into
the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the
region.

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1026 mb high
that is northeast of Hawaii to west of Baja California Sur near
20N119W. The associated gradient is supporting moderate to fresh
north to northeast winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft from 08N to 24N
west of about 120W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south
of the monsoon trough east of 128W. The latest ASCAT satellite
data passes over this part of the area depict these winds. Seas
with these winds are 6 to 7 ft per latest altimeter satellite
data passes.

For the forecast, little overall changes are expected through
the end of the week. The gentle to moderate southerly winds
south of the monsoon trough are expected to increase to fresh
to strong speeds, primarily east of about 109W starting late on
Wed along with seas building to 7 to 10 ft.

$$

Chan