Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
326 AXPZ20 KNHC 100149 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jun 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 11N108W to 09N125W. The ITCZ continues from 09N125W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 80W and 95W, and from 12N to 15N between 96W and 102W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1026 mb located N of area near 36N135W extends a ridge across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting gentle NW winds with seas of 3 to 5 ft N of Punta Eugenia, and moderate NW winds between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lucas, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are seen in the Gulf of California where seas are in the 1 to 3 ft range. Light to gentle winds dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in SW swell. Hazy conditions persist off the Mexican coast south of the southern Gulf of California all the way to the Tehuantepec region due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing moderate to occasionally fresh NW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft into late week. Occasionally moderate winds are expected in the Gulf of California, increasing to fresh speeds across the central part of the Gulf Tue through Wed night as the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge and lower pressure pressures over inland Mexico. At the same time, fresh NW winds are likely between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough remains located farther north than its usual climatological position for this time of the year, and this pattern is forecast to persist through at least mid-week. This results in gentle to moderate SW to W winds in the offshore waters of Central America. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 10N, while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of 10N through tonight. On Mon, winds will begin to gradually increase S of the monsoon trough, possibly reaching fresh to strong speeds by Wed night, mainly from 06N to 11N between 90W and 105W. Seas are forecast to build to 9 or 10 ft within these winds. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1026 mb high pressure system is centered near 36N135W. This system extends a ridge over the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 115W producing mainly a gentle anticyclonic flow. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are observed S of the ITCZ from the Equator to about 06N and W of 130W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft for waters N of 20N. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the area while strengthening somewhat by the middle of the week. The SW flow south of the monsoon trough and E of 110W is forecast to increase to fresh to locally strong speeds Wed night, building seas to 9 or 10 ft. $$ Konarik