762
AXPZ20 KNHC 172053
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Sep 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on  UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The southern portion of a tropical wave is along 92 extending
from along the Mexico-Guatemala border southward over the
eastern Pacific to near 06N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 07N-14N between 90W-95W.

A tropical wave is along 109W from 20N to near 06N, moving
westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted ahead of the wave from 05N-08N between
110W-115W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N85W westward to 10N122W. From there, it transitions to the
ITCZ, which extends west-southwestward to 07N140W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N-12N
west of 130W, from 08N-10N between 112-117W, and from 07N-14N
between 90W-95W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends from 26N118W to 18N105W. Over the waters
west of the Baja California peninsula, winds are NW moderate to
fresh this afternoon. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate.
Seas are 4-6 ft over the Pacific waters, 4-5 ft over the N Gulf
of California, and 1-3 ft over the central and S Gulf of
California.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW to N winds over the
waters just west of the Baja California peninsula from Cabo San
Lazaro northward will weaken by Thu morning. Elsewhere, winds are
gentle to moderate for the next several days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are occurring south of the
monsoon trough; while north of the monsoon trough, moderate or
weaker winds are observed. Seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate SW to W winds will continue
south of the monsoon trough near 10N through tomorrow afternoon,
then freshen Thu through Sat. North of the monsoon trough,
moderate or weaker winds are expected for the next several days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging from a 1031 mb high centered near 38N155W
extends east-southeastward to 30N125W the to 26N118W. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ/monsoon trough
is forcing moderate to fresh NE trades, strongest from 12N to 20N
west of 130W. Seas are 7-8 ft from 09N-17N west of 132W.
Elsewhere, seas are 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, a weak cold front will cross 30N east of 130W
Wed night and push southeastward before dissipating by Fri
morning. No substantial winds or seas should accompany this
front. Otherwise, little change is expected over the open Pacific
waters for the next several days.

$$
Landsea