032
AXPZ20 KNHC 180943
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jun 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central America and southern Mexico Heavy Rainfall Event:
The broad area of low pressure, Potential Tropical Cyclone One
(PTC One) is persisting at the Bay of Campeche. It continues to
sustain convergent monsoonal winds and draw abundant moisture
from the Pacific Ocean into the coastal terrain of Central
America and southern Mexico. This pattern will linger at least
through late week, enhancing heavy rainfall and strong
thunderstorms. This can cause life-threatening conditions that
include flooding and mudslides. Numerous heavy showers and
thunderstorms have persisted near the coasts of Oaxaca and
Chiapas States in Mexican overnight. Areas expecting the
heaviest rainfall through Saturday, remain to be northwest
Nicaragua, southwest Honduras, El Salvador, coastal sections of
Guatemala and the Mexican state of Chiapas. Additionally,
dangerous surf conditions will impact these coastal areas through
the next few days. Please refer to your local meteorological and
emergency management office bulletins for more detailed
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends southwestward from the offshore water
of Oaxaca State in Mexico through 07N120W to 05N137W. An ITCZ
continues westward from 05N137W to beyond 140W. Numerous moderate
to isolated strong convection is observed north of 13N between
92W and 99W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to
13N between 94W and 107W, and from 06N to 08N between 118W and
123W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on heavy
rainfall.

Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the
region. Potential Tropical Cyclone One mentioned in the Special
Features section is sustaining fresh to strong with locally
near-gale SW to W winds and 8 to 11 ft seas at the offshore
waters of Oaxaca and Chiapas States in southern Mexico.
Meanwhile, moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft in
residual NW swell linger west of Baja California Norte. Gentle to
moderate W to NW winds with 5 to 7 ft seas exist near Baja
California Sur and central Mexico. Gentle to moderate southerly
winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft are present at the Gulf of
California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds, rough to very
rough seas, and numerous heavy showers and strong thunderstorms
will impact the offshore waters of southern Mexico through Fri
morning, primarily off Chiapas, Oaxaca and southeastern Guerrero
States. Dangerous surf is also anticipated along the coastal
areas of this region until Fri evening. Farther north, fresh NW
winds and rough seas will persist off Baja California Norte until
late this morning, primarily beyond 120 nm offshore. Residual NW
swell in these waters mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro will
gradually subside through tonight. From Wed evening through Fri
morning, fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas should develop
near Baja California Sur, including waters near Cabo San Lucas as
pressure gradient increases.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on heavy
rainfall.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One mentioned in the Special
Features section is sustaining moderate to fresh with locally
strong SW to W winds and 7 to 9 ft seas across the offshore
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. For the rest of the Central
America, and Colombia offshore waters, gentle to moderate WSW to
W winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft exist. These convergent monsoonal
winds are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
near the coast of Guatemala, El Salvador, Panama and Colombia.
Near the Galapagos Islands and off Ecuador, gentle to moderate
southerly winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft in moderate southerly swell
prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds, rough to very
rough seas and numerous heavy showers and strong thunderstorms
will persist across the offshore waters of northern Central
America through Fri. Dangerous surf is also anticipated along the
coastal areas of this region until Fri evening. Farther south,
rough seas in moderate to large southerly swell will continue
near the Galapagos Islands and offshore of Ecuador through Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the
region.

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1026 mb high
northeast of Hawaii to west of Baja California Sur near 22N118W.
This feature is supporting moderate to fresh NNW to NE winds and
seas of 6 to 9 ft in moderate to large northerly swell, north of
18N and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate NE winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas in moderate northerly swell are evident farther southwest
from 08N to 18N and west of 127W. Light to gentle winds and seas
at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells dominate near the ITCZ and
monsoonal trough west of 118W. South of the monsoon trough from
07N to 14N and east of 118W, fresh with locally strong SW to W
winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are noted. For the remainder of the
region, gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft
in moderate to large southerly swell prevail.

For the forecast, the high pressure and related ridge will
gradually weaken starting this afternoon, which should allow
winds and seas north of 18N and west of 120W to subside through
Thu morning. South of the monsoon trough from 07N to 12N and east
of 118W, fresh to strong SW to W winds will become more
widespread with seas building to between 8 and 10 ft by Wed.
Scattered moderate convection in this same general area is
anticipated to persist through at least Thu. Seas of 6 to 8 ft
will shift west of the Galapagos Islands by Wed.

$$

Chan