779
AXPZ20 KNHC 171548
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Sep 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The southern portion of a tropical wave is along 91W extending
from Guatemala southward over the eastern Pacific to near 06N,
moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 07N-14N between 88W-91W.

A tropical wave is along 107W from 20N to near 07N, moving
westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted ahead of the wave from 04N-07N between
112W-118W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N84W westward to 10N117W. From there, it transitions to the
ITCZ, which extends west-southwestward to 06N140W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N-12N
between 127W-140W, from 08N-10N between 103-120W, and from
07N-14N between 88W-91W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh W to NW winds are occurring behind a dying cold front over
the N Gulf of California. Surface ridging extends from 20N117W
to 18N105W. Over the waters west of the Baja California
peninsula, winds are NW moderate to fresh this morning.
Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 4-6 ft over the
Pacific waters and the N Gulf of California as well as 1-3 ft
over the central and S Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the fresh W to NW winds behind a dying cold
front in the N Gulf of California will diminish this afternoon.
Likewise, moderate to fresh NW to N winds over the waters just
west of the Baja California peninsula from Cabo San Lazaro
northward will weaken by Wed. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to
moderate for the next several days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are occurring south of the
monsoon trough, while north of the monsoon trough, moderate or
weaker winds are observed. Seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate SW to W winds will continue
south of the monsoon trough along 09N-10N through Tue, then
freshen Wed night through Sat. North of the monsoon trough,
moderate or weaker winds are expected for the next several days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging from a 1031 mb high centered near 39N156W extends
east-southeastward to 30N125W the to 20N117W. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ/monsoon trough is forcing
moderate to fresh NE trades, strongest from 12N to 20N west of
130W. Seas are 7-8 ft from 09N-17N west of 122W. Elsewhere, seas
are 5-6 ft.

For the forecast, a weak cold front will cross 30N east of 130W
Wed night and push southeastward before dissipating on Fri. No
substantial winds or seas should accompany this front. Otherwise,
little change is expected over the open Pacific waters for the
next several days.

$$
Landsea