557
AXPZ20 KNHC 220923
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jun 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N97W to 10N100W to 09N130W.
The ITCZ extends from 09N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is evident within 90 nm of the coast
of Mexico between 100W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is
active from 09N to 11N between 97W and 99W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Sentinel altimeter satellite pass from 0430 UTC confirmed seas
of at least 8 to 10 ft offshore of Oaxaca in southern Mexico,
beyond 90 nm from the coast. These combined seas are mostly due
to SW swell lingering from earlier SW winds that have been
occurring over the past week. Deep layer moisture remains
abundant over the area, supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms along the coasts of Michoacan and Guerrero states.

For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to improve
through today off the southern Mexico offshore waters. To the
north, fresh NW winds and rough seas are expected over the Baja
California offshore waters through tonight. Conditions across the
Mexico offshore waters will improve through the early part of
next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on an
ongoing heavy rainfall event.

The broad low pressure over northern Central
America has weakened and shifted northward, allowing winds and
seas to diminish across the region. Seas to 8 ft persist in the
offshore waters of Guatemala beyond 90 nm, associated with
lingering SW swell caused by persistent fresh to strong SW winds.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and mostly moderate combined
seas persists.

For the forecast, seas to 8 ft will linger off Guatemala today,
then subside. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
wave heights will persist elsewhere across the region through the
early part of next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward to the Baja
California offshore waters from a 1030 mb high pressure centered
NW of the area near 35N155W. This pattern is supporting moderate
N to NE winds and 4 to 6 ft west of 110W. Moderate to locally
fresh SW winds continue from 05N to 15N between 90W and 110W,
with combined seas of 8 to 10 ft in SW swell. Moderate SE to S
winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere east of 110W.

For the forecast, monsoonal winds and seas east of 110W and
north of 05N will gradually decrease through today. Otherwise,
little overall changes are expected through early next week.

$$
Christensen