Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
523 AXPZ20 KNHC 210249 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jun 21 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in Central America and the Mexican State of Chiapas: The broad circulation associated with the remnants of Alberto is expected to produce additional heavy rainfall amounts across the Pacific coast of far southern Mexico, southern Guatemala, El Salvador,western Honduras and western Nicaragua. This heavy rainfall can cause life- threatening conditions that include flooding and mudslides. Expect the heavy rainfall to continue through Fri evening. Please refer to your local meteorological and emergency management office bulletins for more detailed information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 14N93W to 11N105W to 11N115W to 09N125W. The ITCZ extends from 09N125W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 09N to 12N between 95W and 100W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on an ongoing heavy rainfall event. Fresh to strong SW to W monsoonal winds and 8 to 11 ft seas are noted across the offshore waters of Oaxaca and Chiapas States in southern Mexico. In addition, strong gusts and frequent lightning may accompany clusters of thunderstorms over the outer waters of Oaxaca and Chiapas. Meanwhile, fresh to strong W to NW winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are found offshore of Baja California. Gentle with locally moderate southerly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft dominate the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds, rough to very rough seas, and scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms will continue to impact the southern Mexico offshore waters through Fri, primarily off Chiapas and Oaxaca. Dangerous surf is also anticipated along the coastal areas of this region until Fri evening. To the north, fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas are expected near Baja California Sur, including the waters near Cabo San Lucas through Fri morning due to tighter pressure gradient. Conditions across the Mexico offshore waters will improve this weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on an ongoing heavy rainfall event. Fresh to strong SW to W monsoonal winds and 8 to 11 ft seas continue across the offshore waters of Guatemala, El Salvador and Costa Rica. Gentle to moderate SW winds along with seas at 5 to 7 ft within S swell are noted across the rest of the Central America and Colombia offshore waters. Farther south, gentle to moderate southerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly swell exist near the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds, rough to very rough seas and numerous heavy showers and strong thunderstorms will persist across the offshore waters of Guatemala, El Salvador and northwestern Nicaragua through Fri. Dangerous surf is also anticipated along the coastal areas of this region until Fri evening. Meanwhile, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are anticipated off Costa Rica and Panama into the weekend. Farther south, moderate to rough seas in moderate southerly swell will continue near the Galapagos Islands and offshore of Ecuador into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge extends southeastward to the Baja California offshore waters from a 1029 mb high pressure centered NW of the area near 35N150W. The associated gradient is supporting gentle to moderate N to NE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft north of ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 120W. East of 115W and north of 08N, fresh to strong SW to NW monsoonal winds and seas at 8 to 11 ft are present. South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, gentle to moderate SE to S winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in moderate southerly swell dominate. For the forecast, monsoonal winds and seas east of 115W and north of 06N will gradually decrease through Fri night into Sat. Otherwise, little overall changes are expected through early next week. $$ Christensen