071
AXPZ20 KNHC 270339
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jun 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Heavy rainfall over from Panama to Nicaragua: Southwest flow is
increasing over the eastern Pacific, bringing increased moisture
into the mountainous areas along the Pacific coastline of western
Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. These winds are influence by
the interaction of a pair of tropical waves moving westward
along the monsoon trough through the southwest Caribbean and
southern Central America. Locally heavy rainfall is possible into
Fri. Please refer to local weather advisories for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is north of 04N along 88W through
Nicaragua moving west at 10 to 15 kt. 1010 mb low pressure
persists in the vicinity of where this wave intersects the
monsoon trough. A surge of fresh to strong SW winds is supporting
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 05N to 08N
between 85W and 95W.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 99W from 05N to 15N. It is
moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
evident from 05N to 08N between 85W and 95W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 1010 mb low pressure
near 09N88W to 13N105W to 11N115W to 11N133W to 1012 mb low
pressure near 11N134W to 09N135W. The ITCZ extends from 09N135W
to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is off the coast
of Central America from Costa Rica to Guatemala north of 05N
between 85W and 90W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is active from 05N to 08N between 85W and 95W.
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 05N to 08N between
85W and 95W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak surface troughs are analyzed west of Baja California north
of 15N between 115W and 130W. This weak pressure pattern
continues to support gentle to moderate winds across Mexican
offshore waters, except for fresh pulses off Cabo San Lucas
overnight tonight. Combined seas are 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, a weak gradient over the area will generally
maintain gentle to moderate breezes and moderate combined seas
across the Mexican offshore waters through Mon. Broad low
pressure is forecast to form over northern Central America and
southern Mexico this weekend, which may enhance showers and
thunderstorms offshore the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

See tropical wave and monsoon trough sections above for
information on convection offshore Central America. Light to
gentle winds persist across waters north of the monsoon trough,
with mainly moderate SW winds to the south. Seas are 3 to 5 ft
north of the monsoon trough and 5 to 7 ft to the south.

For the forecast, broad low pressure over the western Caribbean and
Central America will support moderate to fresh SW winds off
southern Central America into Fri, along with moderate to rough
seas, and scattered showers and thunderstorms. The low pressure
may strengthen some this weekend, enhancing thunderstorm activity.
Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist
elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted within 120 nm north of
a weak 1012 mb low pressure area along the monsoon trough near
11N134W. Elsewhere, a relatively weak pressure gradient across
the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ is leading to
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas west of 110W. To the
east, moderate to occasional fresh SW winds are noted S of the
monsoon trough, in response to lower pressure over Central
America ahead of a tropical wave moving through the western
Caribbean.

For the forecast, expect a slight increase in winds and seas east
of 110W south of the monsoon trough late this week through the
weekend. Little change is expected elsewhere.

$$
Christensen