470
AXPZ20 KNHC 130932
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jul 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 86W from 05N northward into
the Gulf of Honduras, moving westward around 10 kt. Nearby
convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 95.5W from 04N to 15N,
moving westward around 5 to 10 kt. Nearby convection is
described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 115W from 06N to 19N, moving
westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 126.5W from 05N to 16N,
moving westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described in
the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 136W from 05N to 16N, moving
westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1009 mb low over northern
Colombia near 10.5N74W to 11N86W to 09N127W. The ITCZ continues
from 09N127W to 09N135W, then resumes west of a tropical wave
from 09N137W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring north of 07N and east of 85W, and from 07N to 10N
between 110W and 114W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06N to 16N between 94W and 110W, and from 08N to 12N
between 117W and 123W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate SE winds are occurring across the Gulf of California,
as observed on recent scatterometer satellite data, as troughing
prevails over the northern Gulf and along the Baja California
Peninsula. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in this region. Elsewhere, earlier
scatterometer data showed fresh to locally strong E winds and
seas of 5 to 8 ft offshore of southern Mexico, generated by
fresh E gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo. Otherwise, ridging
extends over the remainder of the waters, supporting mainly
gentle winds. Seas of 5 to 6 ft in mixed NW and S and are noted
offshore of Baja, and seas of 5 to 6 ft in S swell are occurring
offshore of southern Mexico.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh N gap winds
will occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through midweek as high
pressure builds over central Mexico. Farther south, moderate E
winds, generated by gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo, will occur
well offshore of southern Mexico through late this week.
Elsewhere, localized moderate SE to SW gap winds are expected in
the Gulf of California into Mon. Fresh to strong S to SE winds
will then develop over the northern Gulf early on Tue and
continue through midweek as low pressure deepens over the Desert
Southwest.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh E gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of
Papagayo as low pressure prevails over northern Colombia.
Moderate to fresh E winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft also extend
through the waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala. South
of the monsoon trough, moderate S to SW winds were observed on
recent scatterometer satellite data. Seas of 4 to 7 ft in S to SW
swell prevail over the Central and South American waters, as
observed on altimeter satellite data.

For the forecast, fresh E winds are expected in the Gulf of
Papagayo today, with pulsing strong winds and occasionally rough
seas then expected tonight through late week as high pressure
builds over Mexico and the Gulf of America. Moderate to locally
fresh E winds will extend through the waters offshore of
Guatemala and El Salvador. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh N
winds may pulse in the Gulf of Panama by midweek. A new S to SW
swell will propagate through the South American waters starting
later today, promoting rough seas offshore of Ecuador and
Colombia through at least the middle of this week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Recent scatterometer satellite data show moderate N to NE winds
occurring north of the ITCZ and west of 120W along the periphery
of a 1033 mb high, centered north of the area near 41N141W.
Satellite data show locally fresh NE winds in the northwestern
waters, generally north of 27N and west of 132W, where seas of 5
to 8 ft in NE swell prevail. South of the monsoon trough and
ITCZ, moderate to fresh S to SE winds prevail. Recent altimeter
data show seas of 6 to 8 ft are occurring south of the equator.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and
moderate seas will occur north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ
this week as ridging prevails over the eastern Pacific. Locally
rough seas will be possible north of 28N into early this
afternoon. Elsewhere, occasionally fresh trade winds will
generate short-period rough seas, from 10N to 15N west of 130W,
through midweek. A new S to SW swell will propagate through the
southern waters over the next several days, promoting rough seas
south of 05N. Looking ahead, a new N swell may lead to rough seas
north of 25N by midweek.

$$
ADAMS