417
FXUS64 KEPZ 152001
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
201 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 135 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Hot and Dry conditions will continue through Wednesday with
temperatures in the lower to mid 100s for the lowlands and upper
80s to lower 90s for the higher terrain. Moisture returns to the
area Thursday with storm chances daily into the weekend. This will
bring cooler air into the area and drop most places closer to
normal for mid June.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The shortwave trough over the area last night has pushed to the
east, bringing back drier air into the area with a western to
southwest wind. NBM 75th percentiles were used for temperatures
today and through Monday as we have been on the end of our model
guidance lately. Ridging will build into the area Sunday through
Monday which will keep temperatures in the lower valley to near
or over 105, leading to an extension of the Heat Advisory through
Monday evening for El Paso and the Rio Grande Valley in TX.

A long wave trough will start to deepen into the SW on Tuesday,
which will be the beginning of a major pattern shift mid week.
This troughing will combine with Gulf moisture and a weak tropical
wave on Wednesday to bring moisture back into the area. Expect a
surge of dewpoints over 50F to move into the area Wednesday
evening into Thursday morning. Storms are possible over the
eastern NM and far east Hudspeth county on Wednesday.

This moisture push will be the end of our current heat wave, as
temperatures look to move back down to more normal for this time
of year. This added moisture will also bring storm chances daily
for the region going into the weekend. The higher terrain has the
highest chances, but outflows may bring some chances to the
lowlands each evening. These storm chance are going to be tied to
how much tropical moisture makes it into W TX and S NM, as there
are some models that push the moisture into Mexico and not this
far north Thursday and Friday. By the weekend the confidence in
storms increases as moisture is pulled in from the south either
way.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions expected throughout the period. Winds will remain
light out of the SW-W for most of the airfields. Winds will pick
up slightly tomorrow out of the west, but say below 20kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 135 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

There will be some near-critical to critical fire weather
conditions over the Gila region today through mid week. The main
concern will be the low RH values in the single digits combined
with extremely dry fuels. The limiting factor will be the winds
as they will remain light through mid week. These lower winds will
be what keeps any headlines from being issued. As winds pick up
mid week, moisture returns and raises the RH into the 20-30
percent range. Thunderstorms and lightning may be a concern form
Thursday one, but dry lightning will be less of a concern with the
low level moisture in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  75 106  77 105 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            68 100  68 100 /   0   0  10   0
Las Cruces               70 104  69 103 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               68 102  67 102 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               55  79  54  77 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    70 101  68 100 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              64  92  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   65 102  65 101 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                65 100  65  99 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       72 103  73 102 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                65 104  66 104 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             67 106  67 107 /   0   0  10   0
Loma Linda               68  97  67  96 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   69 105  70 105 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             65 102  67 101 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           77 102  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            66 102  65 101 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    65 104  64 101 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 70 102  70 102 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                68 101  67 100 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  59  91  58  91 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                58  89  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 57  88  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  59  93  55  90 /  10   0   0   0
Hillsboro                68  99  65  95 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                63 101  61  98 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             59  93  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   62  96  60  95 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    59 101  58 100 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               64  95  62  94 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  65  96  62  93 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   64 100  63  99 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  63 100  64  98 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           65 100  65  97 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               63  94  63  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Tuesday for TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for NMZ411.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...01-Barham