272
FXUS64 KEPZ 240551
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1151 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1218 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

With moisture lingering across the area and temperatures on the
rise, we will continue to have daily chances for showers and
storms over the mountains with better rain chances for the
lowlands coming later this week. Temps will be very hot to start
the week, but should come down a few degrees by the end of the
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1218 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The 12Z EPZ sounding came in with 1.09 inch PW values again today
as the moisture that rolled in several days ago is still
lingering across the region. Meanwhile temps have started to climb
back into triple digit range and will likely stay that way for
several days thanks to an upper ridge that continues to strengthen
overhead.

In general, the ridge has done a good job of suppressing shower
and thunderstorm coverage despite the available moisture. However
orographic effects over the Gila and Sacramento mountains appear
to be more than sufficient to help storms develop in those areas.
We saw the cumulus field forming over area mountains by mid-
morning today and it didn`t take long for them to start producing
locally heavy rainfall. We will continue to have flooding concerns
for the higher terrain this afternoon through much of the week
ahead as storms will show very slow movement if any thanks to the
ridge parked directly overhead. In addition, active burn scars
across Otero and Lincoln county are enhancing runoff of the
heavier rains.

The past several runs of the GFS have been keeping PW values at or
above an inch for the next several days. These numbers are closer
to what we would see in mid-July when the monsoon is in full
swing. Therefore, as lowland temps continue to warm to near
advisory levels, there will likely be enough thermal instability
in the days to come to produce some showers and storms at lower
elevations as well. Models do hint at a weakening of the ridge
some by late week as shortwave energy passes just to our north.
This will also help generate additional showers and storms late
week and into the weekend.

Meanwhile, attention will turn to heat headlines starting Monday.
For now we have only included the typically hotter locations of El
Paso and the lower valley in a heat advisory for Monday as temps
near the 105 mark. But we will likely be expending the heat
advisory and extending it into Tuesday and Wednesday as temps
reach their peak by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VMC overnight with lingering showers at KTCS diminishing. Skies
generally clear at KELP, SCT-BKN120 and clearing by sunrise across
southwest NM. Surface winds from the NE 030-080 AOB 6 knots. Light
SE surface flow tomorrow with skies FEW-SCT110 in the early
afternoon. TS development focused across the high terrain and
western New Mexico. Best chances for direct TS impacts at KTCS thus
PROB30 added to the later period. Gusty outflows affecting most
local terminals around sunset tomorrow. Will amend as needed.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1218 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Fire weather concerns this week will take the form of possible
burn scar flooding and the return of hot temperatures. Upper level
high pressure will build across New Mexico through midweek, and
that will keep winds generally light and help increase our
temperatures. Min RH`s this week will range from 15 to 25% in the
lowlands and 30 to 40% in area mountains. We will continue to see
at least a slight chance for rain this week. Through midweek,
rain chances will be confined mainly to area mountains. The rest
of the area will see better rain chances towards the end of the
week. Ventilation rates will range from fair to good over the next
couple of days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  79 104  81 107 /  10  10  20  20
Sierra Blanca            68  97  73 100 /   0  10  10  20
Las Cruces               74 102  76 105 /  10  10  20  20
Alamogordo               69  99  73 102 /  10  10  10  20
Cloudcroft               53  75  56  79 /  10  20  10  50
Truth or Consequences    73  98  75 100 /  20  30  20  40
Silver City              67  92  68  94 /  30  50  40  60
Deming                   72 102  74 103 /  20  20  30  40
Lordsburg                72  99  73 100 /  30  40  40  60
West El Paso Metro       77 101  79 104 /  10  10  30  20
Dell City                69  99  73 104 /   0  10  10  20
Fort Hancock             71 103  74 106 /   0  10  20  20
Loma Linda               70  95  73  98 /  10  10  20  20
Fabens                   74 103  77 106 /  10  10  20  20
Santa Teresa             73 100  74 103 /  10  10  30  20
White Sands HQ           77  99  81 102 /  10  10  20  30
Jornada Range            69 100  73 102 /  20  10  20  30
Hatch                    71 102  74 105 /  20  20  20  40
Columbus                 74 101  78 103 /  10  20  40  30
Orogrande                72  98  75 102 /  10  10  20  20
Mayhill                  56  86  60  89 /  10  30  10  50
Mescalero                57  87  60  89 /  10  20  10  40
Timberon                 55  84  59  88 /  10  20  10  40
Winston                  61  88  62  90 /  30  60  30  70
Hillsboro                70  95  73  97 /  20  40  20  60
Spaceport                67  98  70 101 /  20  20  20  30
Lake Roberts             62  91  63  92 /  30  60  30  70
Hurley                   67  96  68  97 /  30  40  40  50
Cliff                    66 100  66 102 /  30  50  30  60
Mule Creek               69  94  69  95 /  30  60  40  60
Faywood                  69  95  70  97 /  20  30  30  50
Animas                   70  99  73 100 /  30  50  50  50
Hachita                  69  99  73 101 /  30  40  40  50
Antelope Wells           69  98  71 100 /  40  50  60  60
Cloverdale               67  92  68  94 /  40  70  60  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM MDT Tuesday for TXZ418-
     419-423-424.

NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice