215
FXUS64 KEPZ 180820
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
220 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Hot and dry weather continues today before a change in the
weather pattern brings plentiful moisture from the southeast
Wednesday through the weekend. Much cooler temperatures Thursday
and Friday with chances for showers and thunderstorms area wide.
Heat will return by next week, but daily thunderstorm chances will
continue over the high terrain as this year`s monsoon season
begins.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

One more day of dry conditions today as southwest flow continues.
Moisture boundary sits just off to our east, with
Carlsbad/Roswell reporting dewpoints in the upper 50s and El
Paso/Alamogordo in the lower 20s. Boundary will linger off to the
east with a surface trough in central New Mexico sustaining
southwest flow area wide. Winds will be tick lighter than
yesterday, generally 10 to 15 mph. This should allow temperatures
to be a few degrees cooler again today, with lowland highs
96-101F. Heat Advisory for El Paso/Lower Valley will expire this
morning, but go back into effect on Wednesday.

Pattern change beginning on Wednesday with an inverted trough
retrograding from the Gulf of Mexico across south-central Texas,
primarily forced by high pressure aloft along the Atlantic Coast.
Moisture will begin to reach the eastern portion of the forecast
area due to a shift in surface winds to the southeast, with
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Sacramento Mountains
and Hudspeth County tomorrow afternoon. Mostly dry elsewhere,
with similar warm temperatures. Main concern with storms Wednesday
will be strong outflows and impacts to ongoing wildfire
suppression efforts in the Lincoln National Forest. Guidance
suggests El Paso has a good chance of meeting Heat Advisory
criteria again, with NBM probabilities at 60% of reaching 105F.
Heat Advisory will be re-issued for Wednesday.

This year`s monsoon season begins on June 20 with the arrival of
rich surface moisture Thursday morning. Strong surface high
pressure in central Texas will assist in the erosion of the lee
low and begin a strong push of ESE winds as early as Wednesday
night. Surface dewpoints will soar to the upper 50s to 60 as
moisture flows in under gusty southeast winds. Winds will be quite
breezy on Thursday, 20 to 30 mph. Cloud coverage will become more
common and rain chances will return to the forecast at long last.
Atmospheric precipitable water, which has lately hovered around
0.25-0.50" will jump over 1.00" (above the 90% percentile
climatology).

One big impact will be cooler temperatures, with lowland highs
only reaching the lower 90s Thursday/Friday due to more clouds and
upslope flow. GFS MOS guidance is even lower, but will be
dependent on cloud rain shower coverage.

Current forecast projects the best rain chances to focus eastward
along the TX/NM state line where synoptic lifting directly under
the trough is most favorable for shower development. QPF is a bit
underwhelming along the Rio Grande Valley, but something is
better than nothing given the recent dry spell. Scattered
afternoon showers over the high terrain and isolated lowland
showers in the evening Thursday/Friday can be expected for all
zones. Coverage will be spotty, with the main storm threats being
gusty outflow winds and lightning.

Broad high pressure expands over the Southern US this weekend and
through the rest of June, quickly bumping temperatures back up
next week. Marginal storm chances will continue with moisture
lingering, so PoPs won`t be eliminated entirely but focused on the
mountain zones.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with skies SKC. SW
winds will remain breezy through the overnight hours at 6-12
knots with gusts to 16-22 knots. Winds relax by 12Z to 4-8 knots.
Winds increase by 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Near-critical fire danger again today with southwest winds 10 to
20 mph and min RH 5-12%. Winds will be a bit lighter today
compared to yesterday, but similar direction. Excellent smoke
ventilation and transport to the NE. Active fires in LNF will burn
hottest on the northeast flanks where further growth is likely.

Pattern change expected late this week as moisture arrives from
the southeast increasing humidity, rain chances, and cloud
coverage Thursday through Saturday. Wednesday`s storm chance will
be limited to eastern Otero and Hudspeth Counties. Strong outflows
from these storms will pose a risk of sudden wind shifts and
erratic fire behavior along active fire lines during the
afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will be much cooler
Thursday/Friday under ESE flows and Good ventilation. Min RH will
be much more favorable. Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be
expected each afternoon, with the best chance for wetting rains
over LNF and east of the Rio Grande Valley. Monsoon season well
underway next week with continued daily storm chances over the
high terrain and seasonably hot temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 101  73 104  77 /   0   0  20  20
Sierra Blanca            96  67  96  67 /   0   0  30  30
Las Cruces               99  67 102  72 /   0   0  10  20
Alamogordo               97  65 101  66 /   0   0  20  20
Cloudcroft               75  52  76  51 /   0   0  40  30
Truth or Consequences    98  67  99  71 /   0   0  10  20
Silver City              88  61  92  65 /   0   0   0  20
Deming                   98  62 101  70 /   0   0  10  20
Lordsburg                96  63  99  70 /   0   0   0  10
West El Paso Metro       98  71 102  74 /   0   0  20  20
Dell City               100  64  98  67 /   0   0  30  30
Fort Hancock            101  67 102  69 /   0   0  30  30
Loma Linda               92  65  94  66 /   0   0  30  20
Fabens                  100  67 104  72 /   0   0  20  20
Santa Teresa             96  64 101  70 /   0   0  20  20
White Sands HQ           96  72 100  75 /   0   0  20  20
Jornada Range            96  63 101  67 /   0   0  20  20
Hatch                    99  62 102  69 /   0   0  10  20
Columbus                 98  68 101  73 /   0   0  10  20
Orogrande                96  66  99  70 /   0   0  20  20
Mayhill                  88  54  85  55 /   0   0  50  30
Mescalero                86  55  87  55 /   0   0  30  30
Timberon                 84  53  85  53 /   0   0  40  30
Winston                  89  54  90  58 /   0   0  10  20
Hillsboro                94  64  96  67 /   0   0  10  20
Spaceport                96  59  99  64 /   0   0  10  20
Lake Roberts             87  57  92  61 /   0   0   0  20
Hurley                   91  59  95  64 /   0   0   0  20
Cliff                    96  57 102  64 /   0   0   0  10
Mule Creek               89  61  95  67 /   0   0   0  10
Faywood                  91  62  94  65 /   0   0  10  20
Animas                   96  62 100  69 /   0   0   0  10
Hachita                  96  62  99  69 /   0   0   0  20
Antelope Wells           94  62  99  69 /   0   0   0  10
Cloverdale               89  62  94  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for TXZ418-419-
     423-424.

NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt