Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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424 FXUS64 KEPZ 212333 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 533 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Lingering moisture will allow for a chance of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend and into next week. Temperatures will become hotter once again as high pressure moves into the region and will increase to the 100s. Winds will become light and variable once the high pressure moves in. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Currently, ridging is present over the southern US. The resultant High pressure is allowing moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico to enter the region. PWATs are at record levels between 1.6 to 1.7 in. Dewpoints are very high in the 60s. Instability is minuscule today due to Low MLCAPE of 200 to 300 J/kg, a cap, and some negative vorticity advection (NVA). Therefore, stratiform type rain is what is expected for the rest of the day. Orographic lifting could allow for some heavier rain in higher elevations. Burn scar regions will be susceptible for flash flooding. Extensive cloud cover is present which means high temperatures will only be in the upper 80s today. Winds are mainly from the southeast and are between 10 - 15mph. Into the weekend, the ridge will travel westward and will settle over the region on Sunday. This ridge will remain in this position for the whole forecast period. This ridging will cause temperatures to increase the 100s in the lowlands due to warm air advection (WAA) from more southernly winds at 700mb. These hot temperatures will perpetuate throughout next week. Surface winds will become light and variable at around 5 mph and will remain that way through next week. The Gulf moisture from before will become trapped in the region, so chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain as the region transitions into a monsoon-like pattern. The center of the moisture will be in the western region and into AZ. PWATs will be elevated all week at 1.0 to 1.5 inches. Dewpoints will be in the 50s to 60s across the region. MLCAPE will improve next week, ranging from 500 to 1000 J/kg. Some areas of positive vorticity advection (PVA) will also be present. However, wind shear will be very low, so severe storm chances will be lower. Nevertheless, the aforementioned instability will allow heavy rain producing thunderstorms to form. Cold pooling from some of these storms will generate lift for even more scattered thunderstorms around the CWA. Higher elevations will have an even greater chance for thunderstorms. Flash flooding will be possible, especially in higher elevations where burn scars are located. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 513 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Generally VFR conditions through the period with isolated instances of MVFR conditions due to lowering of CIGS. Skies SCT050-080 to OVC050-080 with VCSH across the area. SHRA possible through the evening, confidence to low for mention in TAFs with VCSH mentioned. Winds will be light to low-end breezy through the evening at 7-12 knots with gusts to 20 knots possible, generally out of the ESE to SE. Winds decrease through the night to light and VRB. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Low fire weather concerns for today and into the weekend. High pressure that is present in the southern US will move westward and will set up over the region on Sunday. This will cause high temperatures to become hotter over the weekend and will reach the 100s for the lowlands. Wind speeds will be southeasterly and breezy today at 10-15 mph and light and variable over the weekend and into next week at around 5 mph. The high pressure will trap moisture in the region, keeping fire weather concerns low for next week. Min RH values will be between 15-20% for the lowlands and 25-35% for higher elevations. Dewpoints will range from the 50s and 60s for the week. Showers and thunderstorms are possible over the weekend, especially at higher elevations. Flash flooding could occur with heavier rain. Ventilation rates will range from good to very good. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 77 99 77 102 / 20 10 10 10 Sierra Blanca 64 91 67 95 / 10 10 0 10 Las Cruces 71 96 72 100 / 30 10 10 10 Alamogordo 67 93 68 97 / 20 20 10 10 Cloudcroft 49 70 52 72 / 30 40 10 30 Truth or Consequences 70 93 73 96 / 60 30 30 30 Silver City 66 87 67 91 / 60 50 40 40 Deming 69 96 69 100 / 60 20 20 20 Lordsburg 72 95 70 99 / 60 40 30 40 West El Paso Metro 74 96 75 99 / 20 10 10 10 Dell City 67 95 68 99 / 10 10 0 10 Fort Hancock 68 97 69 102 / 10 10 0 10 Loma Linda 66 90 69 93 / 10 10 0 10 Fabens 72 98 73 102 / 10 10 0 10 Santa Teresa 70 95 69 99 / 20 10 10 10 White Sands HQ 74 93 77 98 / 30 10 10 10 Jornada Range 67 95 68 98 / 40 20 10 20 Hatch 69 96 69 100 / 40 20 20 20 Columbus 73 96 72 99 / 50 10 10 10 Orogrande 69 94 70 97 / 20 10 10 10 Mayhill 53 82 56 83 / 40 40 10 30 Mescalero 53 80 56 83 / 30 40 20 30 Timberon 50 79 54 82 / 20 20 10 20 Winston 58 83 59 86 / 50 60 40 60 Hillsboro 67 90 69 93 / 50 40 30 40 Spaceport 65 93 66 96 / 50 20 20 20 Lake Roberts 62 86 63 89 / 60 60 40 50 Hurley 64 91 65 93 / 60 40 30 30 Cliff 65 95 65 100 / 60 60 40 50 Mule Creek 68 89 69 93 / 60 70 40 60 Faywood 66 89 67 93 / 60 30 30 30 Animas 71 95 68 99 / 70 40 30 40 Hachita 69 94 67 98 / 80 30 20 30 Antelope Wells 68 94 68 98 / 70 30 30 40 Cloverdale 68 90 68 92 / 80 40 30 50 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ415-416. && $$ FORECASTER...38-Rogers