880
FXUS64 KEPZ 181738
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1138 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 143 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Dry and warm conditions will be prevalent across the area through
the weekend. Slight rain chances are possible for the Sacramento
mountains and portions of Hudspeth County on Friday afternoon with
the remainder of the area remaining dry. Southwest to west winds
will become lightly breezy in the afternoon each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

A steady west to southwest flow pattern aloft will maintain a
quiet weather pattern over the area for the next couple of days.
Temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west Texas will
continue to run 4 to 6 degrees above normal in the afternoon with
middle 90s for most lowland locations. With greater heating in the
afternoon, there will be deeper mixing of the surface boundary
layer with stronger winds aloft for some afternoon breeziness each
day.

On Friday will a Pacific low pressure system will move into
northern Arizona, tightening the southwest flow between the low
and a ridge of high pressure over central Texas. This will cause
moisture south of the region to be pulled up over eastern portions
of the forecast area on Friday, setting up a potential for some
shower and thunderstorm development along a dry line expected to
straddle Otero and Hudspeth counties by Friday afternoon. The
Sacramento Mountains will have the best chance for measurable
rainfall and storms at about 30 percent with some isolated showers
and storms occurring across southern Otero and Hudspeth counties
from mid afternoon to the early evening. Rain amounts will be
spotty with a few locations getting moderate amounts of rain. For
the remainder of the region west of the dry line, dry and warm
conditions with afternoon breezes will continue.

Dry and warm conditions will persist through the weekend as a west
to southwest flow pattern pushes moisture back east of the area.
Latest model runs suggest moisture will again approach the area
from the south and east on Sunday, but will likely remain far
enough east to not impact the region.

The weather forecast for the first part of next week has become a
bit more unsettled and uncertain. Long range forecast models
differ widely and have poor run to run continuity about what will
occur next week. Overall they hint a the development of a deep
low pressure trough over the middle of the country that will
extend at least in part over the local area while at the same time
bringing moisture into the region, increasing rain chances. On
the flip side of that scenario the models sometimes also advertise
that local area will be under a high pressure ridge for continued
dry weather. Best low confidence forecast for next week is that
the local area will remain mostly dry with some uncertainty
regarding rain for areas mainly east of Rio Grande heading into
mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

VMC through the forecast period under dry, southwest flow aloft.
Clear skies today with only FEW100 overnight. Surface winds
generally 210-240 at 08-12 knots this evening, weakening and
veering to 260-300 at 04-08 knots overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 143 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Dry and warm conditions will persist across most of the area
through the weekend. There is a slight chance of rain and
thunderstorms for portions of Otero and Hudspeth counties on
Friday, including the Sacramento Mountains. Dry conditions will
be prevalent through into next week. Minimum RH values will be in
the lower teens in the lowlands with 20 percent range in the
mountains. The lowlands of South Central New Mexico will have
elevated fire conditions with southwesterly breezes in the
afternoon with daytime heating but wind speeds should stay below
critical values. Ventilation rates will be very good to excellent
in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  95  69  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            90  64  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               91  61  94  66 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               90  61  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               68  48  72  52 /   0   0  10   0
Truth or Consequences    89  59  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              81  55  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   90  58  92  62 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                87  58  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       92  68  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                94  62  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             95  66  98  71 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               85  64  88  67 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   93  65  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             89  63  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           90  67  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            89  61  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    91  58  94  62 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 89  61  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                89  62  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  81  53  84  56 /   0   0  10   0
Mescalero                78  52  83  55 /   0   0  10   0
Timberon                 77  52  81  54 /   0   0  10   0
Winston                  81  48  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                87  55  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                89  56  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             80  48  82  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   83  53  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    88  50  91  53 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               81  53  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  83  56  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   89  56  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  87  56  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           89  55  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               81  54  83  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt