143
FXUS64 KEPZ 142001
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
201 PM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024

There will be an increase in moisture across the area over the
next couple of days with a chance for some showers and
thunderstorms. Best chances will be west and north Sunday and
areawide Monday. For Tuesday through Friday, much drier air
returns with temperatures remaining above average and breezy
afternoons.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Models and ensemble means all support main upper synoptic pattern
of a mean ridge over the Great Basin region and a mean ridge near
the Mississippi River Valley. This places the Borderland in
generally a southwest flow pattern. The lower/mid level flow early
on though, looks to be tapping some remnant moisture from Ileana
which will move up into the region over the next couple of days.

For tonight, almost all the moisture to work with is far east, so
just expecting isolated storms in this area during the evening.
Overnight lows look close to last night. Going into Sunday, start
to get a better SW flow at H50 and some low level convergence that
could be the trigger for some storms starting out west and then
spreading toward the RGV and northern zones. Models not showing
much of an upper trigger, and forecast soundings south and east
from around DMN indicating a decent upper subsidence inversion
which could limit activity more than the CAMs are showing. Only
going mainly low chance out west and mountains with isolated
coverage as you head east over the lowlands. Expect this inversion
and loss of daytime heating to kill off most storms by around 03Z.

Going into Monday, fairly deep upper low for September moves into
the Great Basin and helps to start cooling temps aloft. This
should allow for better coverage of storms across CWA into Monday
night. Shear will be there, but instability still not great, but
wouldn`t be surprised to get a few stronger storms, especially
west. High temperatures will be a little cooler with increased
cloud cover and moisture but still above average.

Surface winds start to turn west to southwest Tuesday with just a
few lingering storms possible far east. Otherwise, this will keep
temperatures warm with main trough remaining over AZ at least
through Friday. With the west winds in place for a few days, think
the NBM temps may be a couple degrees too cool and raised them a
bit. Overnight lows should cool off nicely though as dew points
drop into the 30s and with clear skies, most areas will see 50s
with some lower to mid 60s around KELP.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1042 AM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024

P6SM FEW-SCT090-110 SCT-BKN200-250 through most of the period.
Isolated -TSRA possible at eastern and western edges of the
forecast area until 02Z and then mainly out west after 16Z.
Winds mainly south to southeast AOB 12KTS but could gust over
30KTS near thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024

There will be a couple days with increased moisture across the
area. Isolated to scattered storms are expected Sunday north and
west and areawide Monday. Starting Tuesday, winds will be picking
up each afternoon out of the west to southwest and RH`s will be
falling into the teens, but as of right now, ERC`s will be high
enough to limit the fire danger. All though this time temperatures
will be near to above average. Vent rates will be good to very
good the next couple of days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  72  96  72  95 /   0   0  10  10
Sierra Blanca            65  89  65  90 /  20   0   0  10
Las Cruces               65  94  66  91 /  10  10  20  20
Alamogordo               64  93  66  92 /  10  20  20  20
Cloudcroft               48  69  47  68 /  20  30  20  30
Truth or Consequences    63  91  62  87 /   0  20  20  40
Silver City              62  85  57  80 /  10  50  30  70
Deming                   63  94  63  89 /  10  20  20  40
Lordsburg                62  89  62  86 /  10  40  20  50
West El Paso Metro       71  94  72  93 /   0  10  10  20
Dell City                64  94  65  93 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Hancock             65  95  68  95 /  10  10   0  10
Loma Linda               63  88  64  86 /  20  10   0  10
Fabens                   68  96  67  94 /  10   0  10  10
Santa Teresa             68  93  68  91 /   0  10  20  20
White Sands HQ           68  93  69  91 /   0  10  10  20
Jornada Range            61  93  65  91 /   0  20  20  20
Hatch                    64  94  63  93 /  10  20  20  30
Columbus                 63  93  67  89 /  10  10  20  30
Orogrande                65  92  66  90 /  10  10  10  20
Mayhill                  53  82  51  80 /  20  20  20  20
Mescalero                51  81  53  81 /  10  30  20  30
Timberon                 50  79  50  77 /  20  20  20  20
Winston                  52  81  51  78 /  10  50  20  50
Hillsboro                59  89  59  84 /  10  30  20  50
Spaceport                59  92  61  88 /   0  20  20  30
Lake Roberts             42  82  50  79 /  10  60  30  70
Hurley                   59  87  57  82 /  10  30  20  60
Cliff                    49  88  53  83 /  10  50  30  70
Mule Creek               45  83  51  80 /  10  50  30  60
Faywood                  59  87  59  84 /  10  30  20  50
Animas                   65  90  64  86 /  10  40  20  50
Hachita                  61  90  63  88 /  10  20  20  40
Antelope Wells           63  90  62  86 /  10  20  20  30
Cloverdale               59  85  59  80 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz