Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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733 FXUS64 KEPZ 201752 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1152 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 634 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Thursday will be the coolest day of the period as plenty of clouds and some rain showers will be overhead. Remnants of Tropical Storm Alberto will help keep moisture locked in over the area leading to rain chances areawide the next couple days. Rain chances persist over the weekend as well with gradual warming of temperatures. Our next triple digit high temperatures could be seen as early as Sunday as high pressure migrates to the area. Hot temperatures will persist early to mid week next week with monsoonal rain and thunderstorms expected each afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Remnants of TS Alberto will continue to inch closer to the area today keeping moisture locked in place. A tightened pressure gradient will keep breezy winds almost areawide today and into tonight. The wind advisory will continue for the NM Bootheel and locations bordering AZ which will persist through the early morning hours Friday. Rain chances continue yet again this afternoon but are NOT expecting a repeat of yesterday. Instead, we`ll see cooler temperatures with cloudy skies and more of a stratiform rain for much of the area. CAPE values aren`t very impressive with values of around 200-600 J/kg but bulk shear values are plentiful west of the Rio Grande Valley (RGV) with values of 30-40kts. DCAPEs will be around 1000 J/kg east of the RGV and higher values of 1500-1600 J/kg will be found west of the valley. Stronger storms out east could still put out a decent outflow but better chances of stronger gusts from outflows will be seen out west. If storms do form out west, stronger storms have the potential for gusts to reach 40-50MPH near outflows. However, much of the rain activity should stay east of the RGV and area mountains. Winds begin to relax heading into Friday leaving breezy conditions over the area. Sustained wind speeds will be about 15-25MPH that afternoon. Even worse dynamics will be seen Friday as shear is virtually little to none and CAPE values stay pitiful at 100-500 J/kg. Expect areawide precipitation chances on Friday where stratiform rains will be seen. Skies remain cloudy into Friday as well preventing much of the convection. Mid level high pressure migrates over the Borderland by Saturday which will help suppress storms but recycled moisture trapped underneath high pressure will be enough to continue rain chances Saturday and Sunday. The focus of showers being in the area mountains and in general west of the RGV. High pressure stays parked over the area Monday through mid-week keeping rain chances for the area each afternoon. This will act somewhat monsoonal as daytime heating will get showers and t-storms going that afternoon but shuts off in the evening due to loss of heating. In addition, this high pressure will return triple digits to the lowlands as early as Sunday lasting through the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 BKN-OVC050 east of the Rio Grande today, with more FEW-SCT cloud coverage to the west. A few isolated showers and TS over the high terrain. No terminal impacts expected today due to precipitation. Ceilings breaking briefing this evening, becoming overcast again early Friday morning with possible MVFR CIGS (OVC015-030) and clouds topping mountains. Overcast conditions all day tomorrow as tropical remnants move into the region from the southeast. Visibility expected to remain unlimited at the surface. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 326 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 After a good push of moisture yesterday, min RH values will stay above critical thresholds today through the weekend. In addition, rain chances remain for much of the area today through at least Sunday. Breezy to windy southeast winds can be expected today with somewhat breezy conditions on Friday. East to southeast winds become light over the weekend keeping fire danger relatively low. Winds remain light Monday through Wednesday with monsoonal rain chances continuing each day. Temperatures will gradually increase each day starting tomorrow where triple digits return as early as Sunday for the desert lowlands. Critical min RH values are expected to return to the lowlands by Monday but light winds during this time should keep fire danger low. Ventilation rates will be generally good to excellent each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 88 77 95 76 / 30 50 40 10 Sierra Blanca 78 67 87 64 / 60 70 30 20 Las Cruces 89 72 92 71 / 30 40 30 10 Alamogordo 88 68 89 67 / 40 50 50 10 Cloudcroft 63 51 65 49 / 60 70 80 10 Truth or Consequences 89 71 86 71 / 20 60 50 30 Silver City 84 64 82 66 / 20 40 60 50 Deming 91 70 91 69 / 20 40 40 20 Lordsburg 92 69 91 73 / 10 30 50 50 West El Paso Metro 87 74 92 73 / 30 40 40 10 Dell City 81 68 89 65 / 60 70 50 10 Fort Hancock 86 69 94 67 / 50 60 30 10 Loma Linda 78 67 85 65 / 30 50 40 10 Fabens 88 72 94 72 / 40 50 40 10 Santa Teresa 87 70 91 69 / 20 40 30 10 White Sands HQ 86 75 89 75 / 30 50 40 20 Jornada Range 87 67 89 67 / 20 40 40 10 Hatch 90 69 90 69 / 30 50 50 20 Columbus 91 72 91 74 / 20 30 30 20 Orogrande 84 70 89 69 / 30 50 40 10 Mayhill 68 55 73 53 / 70 80 90 10 Mescalero 75 55 74 53 / 50 70 80 20 Timberon 70 51 73 50 / 60 70 70 10 Winston 81 57 78 58 / 20 70 80 40 Hillsboro 85 66 84 67 / 30 60 70 30 Spaceport 87 64 86 64 / 20 40 40 20 Lake Roberts 85 60 82 62 / 20 50 70 50 Hurley 87 64 86 64 / 20 40 60 40 Cliff 95 64 92 66 / 10 20 50 50 Mule Creek 91 67 88 69 / 20 20 40 50 Faywood 85 64 84 66 / 20 50 60 40 Animas 93 69 91 72 / 20 20 50 40 Hachita 91 68 90 69 / 20 30 30 30 Antelope Wells 93 68 91 70 / 20 30 60 40 Cloverdale 91 67 87 69 / 20 20 60 50 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Wind Advisory until 3 AM MDT Friday for NMZ404>406. Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ415-416. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt