693
FXUS64 KEPZ 251728
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1128 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1250 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

We will see a hot day again this afternoon with high temperatures
running 5 to 10 degrees above average. We will see a slight chance
for thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly in area mountains. For
Wednesday and Thursday it will still be very warm with a good
chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. For Friday and
into the weekend, we will have a continued chance for afternoon
and evening thunderstorms, with high temperatures running a few
degrees above average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1250 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Our hot weather will continue today, but it will not only be hot
this afternoon, night time temperatures, especially in urban areas
will not cool much. The low temperatures this week in El Paso may
stay at or above 80 degrees all the way through Sunday. Currently
an area of upper level high pressure aloft is controlling our
weather. This ridge aloft will help warm our high temperatures
today and Wednesday 5 to 10 degrees above average. Today and
Wednesday, we will see lowland high temperatures of 104 to 108.
While today`s precipitable water value (PW`s) is a little above
average, the strength of the ridge aloft will limit thunderstorm
activity to area mountains, and just a few storms in the lowlands.
But on Wednesday, several subtle factors change things. First an
upper level short wave trough will move across northern New
Mexico on the north side of the upper level ridge and that will
weaken the ridge a little. At the surface, an east push will
allow more moisture to move into the region as PW`s rise up from
today`s 1.0 values to values of 1.3 to 1.5 on Wednesday. The
increased moisture and weakened ridge aloft, will give us more
thunderstorms on Wednesday. Flash flooding, especially near and
downstream of recent burn scars will be of concern Wednesday
afternoon and evening.

For Thursday and Friday, the upper level ridge will drift a little
south and we will still have very high PW values of 1.3 to 1.5, so
we will continue to see a good chance for rain. Our high
temperatures both days, despite the rain chances will continue to
run a few degrees above average. For Saturday and Sunday, the
upper level ridge will recenter itself over the Arklatex and the
clockwise circulation around the ridge will allow more deep
moisture to move into the region, especially west of the Rio
Grande. PW values this weekend will continue to run in the 1.3 to
1.5 range. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday, though not as
hot as the next couple of days, will still be running a few
degrees above average. For the start of next week, not much will
change with high temperatures running a few degrees above average
and daily isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. Welcome to the monsoon season.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Scattered CU
develop this afternoon in the lowlands with cloud bases around
10kft. A few showers and storms are expected in the mountains as
well. The activity dissipates this evening with gusty outflows
possible for the terminals. We`ll be monitoring satellite trends
for a stray shower or storm this afternoon near the TAF sites. SCT-
BKN100-120 linger into tomorrow morning. Other than a few outflow
boundaries later today, light to modestly breezy winds expected
mainly from W. Occasional gusts to upper teens develop in late
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1250 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Fire weather concerns today will be the heat in the lowlands and
thunderstorm chances in area mountains. High temperatures today
and Wednesday will run 5 to 10 degrees above average. We will see
a slight chance for thunderstorms today, but a good chance for
thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday. We will continue to be
very warm with isolated to scattered thunderstorms for Friday and
into the weekend. Min RH will range from 15 to 25% in the lowlands
to 30 to 40% in area mountains today through Sunday. Though winds
will not be much of a factor over the next seven days, any
thunderstorms that develop will have the capability of producing
strong and gusty outflow winds. Ventilation rates will range from
good to very good over the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 108  84 107  80 /  10  40  70  80
Sierra Blanca           100  75  99  71 /  20  50  60  60
Las Cruces              106  78 105  75 /  20  30  70  80
Alamogordo              103  74 102  70 /  20  30  60  60
Cloudcroft               80  58  79  56 /  50  30  70  60
Truth or Consequences   100  77 101  75 /  30  20  70  70
Silver City              95  69  95  67 /  60  50  90  70
Deming                  105  75 104  74 /  30  40  80  80
Lordsburg               101  74 101  72 /  40  30  70  60
West El Paso Metro      105  81 105  78 /  10  40  70  80
Dell City               105  75 104  74 /  20  30  50  40
Fort Hancock            107  77 107  74 /  20  50  70  60
Loma Linda               98  74  98  71 /  20  40  70  70
Fabens                  107  79 107  76 /  20  40  70  70
Santa Teresa            104  76 104  74 /  10  40  70  80
White Sands HQ          103  82 104  79 /  20  40  70  80
Jornada Range           104  74 104  71 /  20  30  70  70
Hatch                   105  74 105  73 /  30  40  70  70
Columbus                104  80 105  76 /  30  40  70  80
Orogrande               103  76 102  73 /  20  30  60  70
Mayhill                  89  62  90  61 /  60  30  80  60
Mescalero                90  62  90  59 /  40  20  70  60
Timberon                 89  61  89  58 /  40  30  70  60
Winston                  91  63  92  62 /  70  30  90  70
Hillsboro                98  74  98  71 /  50  30  90  70
Spaceport               102  71 102  69 /  30  30  60  70
Lake Roberts             93  64  94  63 /  70  40  90  60
Hurley                   98  68  97  66 /  40  40  80  70
Cliff                   103  66 103  66 /  60  40  80  50
Mule Creek               96  70  97  69 /  50  30  70  50
Faywood                  98  71  97  69 /  40  40  80  70
Animas                  100  74 101  71 /  40  40  70  70
Hachita                 101  75 102  71 /  30  40  70  80
Antelope Wells          100  73 100  70 /  50  50  80  90
Cloverdale               94  68  95  68 /  60  60  80  70

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for NMZ410-411.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson