328
FXUS64 KEPZ 210529
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1129 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Cool temperatures with scattered rain showers again on Friday
before high pressure rebuilds over the Southwest and temperatures
heat up next week. Daily thunderstorm chances will continue as
moisture stays in place and the monsoon season gets underway.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Strong east push of moisture overnight with surface dewpoints
soaring into the lower 60s. Despite all the available moisture,
weak ridging flow aloft and cooler temperatures have limited storm
chances. A few showers are possible this evening, especially over
Otero and Hudspeth Counties but we won`t see anything close to the
severe weather that occurring yesterday. Precipitation will be
light and spotty if it occurs at all tonight.

Despite this afternoon`s cooler temperatures, conditions will
remain fairly warm overnight due to overcast skies and breezy
southeast winds.

One more day of relatively cool and moist conditions on Friday as
tropical remnants from the Gulf of Mexico flow into the region.
Mostly cloudy skies throughout the day tomorrow with rain showers
once again quite spotty and light, but can`t be ruled out.

Warming trend begins again Saturday into next week as high
pressure aloft rebuilds over the southern US, eventually centering
over far west Texas and New Mexico midweek. Lowland highs back
into the 100s by Monday, and Heat Advisories will be needed
midweek as El Paso`s high jumps back to 105-110 degrees. Moisture
does linger, however, thus daily afternoon storm chances over area
mountains and a few isolated evening storms on the desert floor
will occur each day. The monsoon season has begun and it will be
difficult to completely rule out PoPs going forward. Coverage will
be limited due to the suffocating nature of the upper high, but
low-end chances will remain in the forecast going forward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

VFR conditions expected with skies FEW/SCT050-070 with BKN/OVC200-
250 decks. CIGs will gradually lower through the night, becoming
BKN/OVC050-080 during the early and mid morning. Skies become BKN
during the afternoon hours. ISO SHRA will be possible for all
terminals through the period, after 12Z. However, confidence is low
on direct impact on terminals so no mention in TAF.

Winds remain gusty out of the ESE at 15-20 knots with gusts to 25-30
knots. AWW currently in effect for KELP is set to expire at 06Z as
winds will slowly decrease through the night. Winds remain breezy
through the period out of the E to SE at 10-15 knots with gusts to
20-25 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Breezy southeast flow due to a moisture intrusion will continue
into Friday. Southeast winds 15 to 25 mph tomorrow will lead to
Fair to Good smoke ventilation with transport to the northwest of
wildfires. Isolated rain showers possible this evening and again
tomorrow afternoon, especially over the Sacramento Mountains.
Sensitive burn scars will be monitored closely for flooding
risks. Min RH 30-40% lowlands and 50-75% mountains.

Warmer and drier weather returns this weekend into next week. No
fire headlines are expected with light afternoon winds and RH
above critical thresholds. Thunderstorm chances will continue each
day, especially over the GNF and LNF. Risk of new lightning starts
will be possible, along with flask flooding over burn scars.
Otherwise wetting rains will become more common next week,
providing some relief to the ongoing severe drought conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  77  95  76  99 /  50  40  10   0
Sierra Blanca            67  87  64  91 /  70  30  20   0
Las Cruces               72  92  71  97 /  40  30  10  10
Alamogordo               68  89  67  94 /  50  50  10  10
Cloudcroft               51  65  49  70 /  70  80  10  30
Truth or Consequences    71  86  71  93 /  60  50  30  30
Silver City              64  82  66  88 /  40  60  50  40
Deming                   70  91  69  97 /  40  40  20  20
Lordsburg                69  91  73  96 /  30  50  50  40
West El Paso Metro       74  92  73  96 /  40  40  10  10
Dell City                68  89  65  95 /  70  50  10   0
Fort Hancock             69  94  67  98 /  60  30  10   0
Loma Linda               67  85  65  90 /  50  40  10   0
Fabens                   72  94  72  98 /  50  40  10   0
Santa Teresa             70  91  69  95 /  40  30  10  10
White Sands HQ           75  89  75  94 /  50  40  20  10
Jornada Range            67  89  67  95 /  40  40  10  10
Hatch                    69  90  69  97 /  50  50  20  20
Columbus                 72  91  74  96 /  30  30  20  10
Orogrande                70  89  69  94 /  50  40  10  10
Mayhill                  55  73  53  82 /  80  90  10  30
Mescalero                55  74  53  81 /  70  80  20  20
Timberon                 51  73  50  79 /  70  70  10  20
Winston                  57  78  58  84 /  70  80  40  50
Hillsboro                66  84  67  90 /  60  70  30  40
Spaceport                64  86  64  93 /  40  40  20  20
Lake Roberts             60  82  62  87 /  50  70  50  50
Hurley                   64  86  64  91 /  40  60  40  30
Cliff                    64  92  66  97 /  20  50  50  50
Mule Creek               67  88  69  92 /  20  40  50  60
Faywood                  64  84  66  90 /  50  60  40  30
Animas                   69  91  72  96 /  20  50  40  30
Hachita                  68  90  69  95 /  30  30  30  20
Antelope Wells           68  91  70  96 /  30  60  40  30
Cloverdale               67  87  69  91 /  20  60  50  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Wind Advisory until 3 AM MDT Friday for NMZ404>406.

     Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT Friday for NMZ415-416.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher