Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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107 FXUS64 KEPZ 161001 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 401 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 400 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Moisture persisting over the area today will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms, starting out west this afternoon and spreading east through the night. Some thunderstorms are possible again Tuesday, mainly east of the Rio Grande Valley. Drier southwest flow aloft will push the moisture to our east, giving us mostly clear skies Wednesday into the weekend, with seasonable temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Left over sub-tropical moisture is now mostly over New Mexico, drifting slightly east from Arizona Sunday. Strong early season Pacific upper low is now over central California. Broad southwest flow around this low now over the CWA will continue to slowly push this moisture east today and Tuesday. For today expect scattered showers and thunderstorms west of the Rio Grande Valley late this morning and afternoon, spreading to east of the valley tonight. PWs are well above normal indicating some flood potential, but storm motion looks to be at 20 mph today, so believe this will limit any flooding. DCAPE values and dewpoint depressions suggest wind gusts of 30-40 mph to be main threat with storms. Upper low travels across the Great Basin overnight tonight and over the northern Rockies Tuesday. This will allow the main trough to sweep across New Mexico Tuesday, eventually flushing moisture east out of the area. In the process though, isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms again on Tuesday, though mostly from the Rio Grande Valley east. Wednesday through Friday...should be mostly dry as dry southwest flow continues as next Pacific upper low cuts across the southern Great Basin toward the Four Corners later portion of Friday. At the surface, the dry air will strengthen the dry-line just east of the CWA. As is usually the case, this line will undulate slightly east and west, but probably stay east of the CWA. GFS alone does move the line back into the eastern CWA Friday. Did bring low POPs back into the eastern CWA but will have to watch this area daily through this period. Saturday and Sunday...upper low continues across southern Colorado with strong trough forcing the dry-line further east well out of our area. Temperatures down to near seasonable levels. GFS again the outlier in sweeping the dry-line west over much of the CWA on Sunday, suggesting chances of rain returning. For now went with the ECMWF solution of the dry-line remaining east of the area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 PM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Fairly quiet conditions tonight with a few outflow boundaries sloshing around. There is some sign of redevelopment of showers KDMN and west tonight. High resolution models have been capturing this activity tonight but models have largely backed off on scattered showers occurring there tonight with most recent data. KDMN and KTCS may need future amendments to capture showery activity. Otherwise, light winds AOB 10KT generally out of the east expected tonight becoming southerly and low end breezy (12G22KT) during the afternoon. Another round of t-storms expected during the afternoon with much of the focus west of the Rio Grande, but storm activity may shift east of the Rio Grande later in the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 400 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 More showers and thunderstorms today and Tuesday as the last of the sub-tropical moisture lingers around. Drying out Wednesday into the weekend, though brief moisture return on Friday could produce an isolated thunderstorm over Otero and Hudspeth Counties. Temperatures well above normal through Thursday, then dropping down to more seasonable levels over the weekend. Min RH: Lowlands 25-35% today and Tuesday, decreasing to 12-18% Wednesday through Saturday. Mountains 35-50% today and Tuesday, decreasing to 20-30% Wednesday through Saturday. Vent rates very good-excellent through Thursday, then fair-good Friday and Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 95 72 94 70 / 10 30 20 10 Sierra Blanca 91 65 89 65 / 0 20 20 10 Las Cruces 92 67 91 63 / 20 30 10 0 Alamogordo 90 65 90 62 / 20 30 30 0 Cloudcroft 70 47 68 46 / 20 30 40 10 Truth or Consequences 89 67 88 60 / 20 20 20 0 Silver City 83 62 80 54 / 40 30 20 0 Deming 89 66 91 59 / 30 30 20 0 Lordsburg 83 65 87 59 / 40 30 10 0 West El Paso Metro 93 72 91 68 / 10 30 20 10 Dell City 94 64 93 65 / 10 20 20 10 Fort Hancock 96 66 94 66 / 10 20 20 10 Loma Linda 88 67 86 63 / 10 20 20 10 Fabens 95 67 93 67 / 10 20 20 10 Santa Teresa 92 69 90 65 / 20 30 10 0 White Sands HQ 92 68 90 67 / 10 30 20 0 Jornada Range 92 66 89 60 / 20 30 20 0 Hatch 94 66 91 59 / 20 30 20 0 Columbus 89 69 91 63 / 30 30 10 0 Orogrande 91 69 89 62 / 10 30 20 10 Mayhill 83 52 80 53 / 20 20 40 10 Mescalero 85 51 79 51 / 20 30 40 10 Timberon 81 50 77 51 / 20 20 40 10 Winston 81 54 82 47 / 30 20 20 0 Hillsboro 86 65 87 55 / 30 30 20 0 Spaceport 89 64 88 57 / 20 30 20 0 Lake Roberts 82 52 79 49 / 60 30 30 0 Hurley 85 61 84 54 / 40 30 20 0 Cliff 84 57 84 54 / 50 30 20 0 Mule Creek 82 54 79 49 / 40 30 20 0 Faywood 86 62 83 56 / 40 30 20 0 Animas 85 67 88 58 / 40 30 10 0 Hachita 89 66 87 58 / 30 30 10 0 Antelope Wells 85 65 88 57 / 30 20 10 0 Cloverdale 80 62 82 55 / 30 20 10 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner