Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
451 FNUS74 KEPZ 200001 FWSEPZ Spot Forecast for Bue 2 fire...USFA National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 601 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0500 MDT on June 20. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Currently, at this site it is storm free. However, there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms at least until be midnight. These storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, lightning and possibly hail. Tonight recovery will be very good. For Thursday, the air mass will be humid. There will be a chance for rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm. The 20ft winds will be light to low end breezy with the temperature below the normal. Thursday night recovery will be somewhat similar to that of tonight`s recovery. For the rest of the period, there will be a chance for additional showers and thunderstorms with breezy winds. With that being said, there will be no fire weather concerns through the period. .REST OF TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Chance of pcpn......20 percent. LAL.................3. Min temperature.....Around 58. Max humidity........86 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 12 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms. Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southeast around 18 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (16100 knot-ft). Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 5 AM Sky (%).........63 Weather cov.....S CHC Weather type....RNSHWR Tstm cov........S CHC Chc of pcpn (%).20 LAL.............4 Temp............58 RH..............83 20 ft wind......SE 12 20 ft wind gust.23 Mix hgt (ft)....1300 Transport wind..SE 18 Haines index....2 Vrate kt-ft/1K..16 Ventrate Cat....POOR .THURSDAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then rain showers likely and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......60 percent. LAL.................1 until 0900, then 3 until 1200, then 4. Max temperature.....Around 71. Min humidity........57 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon. Mixing height.......4300 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southeast 18 to 21 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (40400 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (73000 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........62 62 48 40 40 59 Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........NONE NONE S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE Chc of pcpn (%).30 30 40 60 60 50 LAL.............1 1 4 5 5 5 Temp............58 62 66 69 70 71 RH..............86 75 68 62 58 57 20 ft wind......SE 10 SE 10 SE 10 SE 10 SE 10 SE 12 20 ft wind gust.21 21 20 22 22 24 Mix hgt (ft)....2400 2400 4100 4100 4300 4300 Transport wind..SE 18 SE 18 SE 20 SE 20 SE 21 SE 21 Haines index....2 2 2 2 2 2 Vrate kt-ft/1K..40 40 69 69 73 73 Ventrate Cat....FAIR FAIR GOOD GOOD GOOD GOOD .THURSDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers and chance of thunderstorms. Chance of pcpn......80 percent. LAL.................4. Min temperature.....Around 57. Max humidity........86 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 9 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms. Mixing height.......1600 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southeast 20 to 22 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (55400 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (27800 knot-ft) late in the night. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM Sky (%).........79 93 98 95 Weather cov.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE Chc of pcpn (%).80 80 80 80 LAL.............5 5 5 5 Temp............69 63 60 58 RH..............58 72 80 83 20 FT wind......SE 12G23 SE 11G22 SE 10G20 SE 9G18 Mix hgt (ft)....2700 2700 1800 1600 Transport wind..SE 22 SE 22 SE 20 SE 21 Haines index....2 2 2 2 Vrate kt-ft/1K..55 55 31 28 Ventrate Cat....FAIR FAIR POOR POOR .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers in the morning. Slight chance of thunderstorms late in the morning, then rain showers likely and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......70 percent. LAL.................1 until 0900, then 3 until 1200, then 4. Max temperature.....Around 69. Min humidity........63 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Mixing height.......4100 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southeast 14 to 21 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (34200 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to fair (48700 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM Sky (%).........94 89 85 Weather cov.....DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........NONE S CHC CHANCE Chc of pcpn (%).70 70 60 LAL.............1 5 5 Temp............57 64 68 RH..............86 77 69 20 FT wind......SE 10G17 SE 10G18 SE 10G20 Mix hgt (ft)....1800 3200 4100 Transport wind..SE 21 S 19 S 14 Haines index....2 2 2 Vrate kt-ft/1K..34 47 49 Ventrate Cat....POOR FAIR FAIR .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY... Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. South winds around 7 mph. .SUNDAY... Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the lower 80s. South winds around 6 mph. .MONDAY... Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the mid 80s. South winds around 7 mph. $$ Forecaster...TEXEIRA Requested by...ICT4 (t) Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2416173.2/EPZ .DELDT 06/19/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL thomas.goetz@usda.gov