905
FXUS64 KEWX 060529
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1229 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 802 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

We just sent a short update to account for the storms trending down
in the Edwards Plateau and northern Rio Grande Plains, and to end
the Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning for the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The main issue will be this evening, as we watch for potential
development/re-development along the Sierra Madre, the edge of the
old outflow boundary, and other locations where prior outflows can
potentially hook up with a weak...though north-south diving short
wave...which scoots through south-central and south Texas on the
backside of the general trough across the Lower Mississippi Valley.
This is a difficult call, as model consensus is bearish...including
the hourly updated convective-allowing models (CAMs). Still...any
energy running into the oppressive air mass has the potential to
create something...and this matches well with the Storm Prediction
Center`s marginal (level 1 of 5) risk. So...have expanded the
coverage of slight chances to include locations south and west of the
Austin-San Antonio corridor (which should stay just stable enough).

All the activity should be over between 10 and 1 AM as the wave moves
into the Lower Rio Grande Valley and beyond.

Otherwise...will hold onto the current single county (Frio) Heat
Warning and Heat Advisory for part of the Edwards Plateau and Rio
Grande Plains/Big Bend region as temperatures are generally matching
up nicely. Frio may fall short (advisory vs. warning) since the
earlier outflow pushed dewpoints down a hair...but not enough
confidence to remove at this point.

Sunshine and heat returns everywhere Thursday...though the potential
for Heat Advisory is held to portions of the Rio Grande Plains/Big
Bend region based on slightly lower temperatures in the low levels.
Will defer to later shifts for hoisting another advisory.

A mostly clear, mainly calm, but plenty warm and humid night follows
Thursday night as east side of expansing 500 mb ridge noses in.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The aforementioned 500 mb ridge builds across most of Texas Friday
and Saturday, locking in more heat and modest humidity. Dewpoints may
be a touch lower with some drier air mix-down, so situation may fall
just short of a Heat Advisory (108+ east and 110+ near the Rio
Grande). Plenty of sunshine and light winds will make it feel pretty
hot by early June standards. See Climate section for records...which
should hold but not by much.

By Sunday, the ridge begins shifting southward as a fairly deep (for
early June) 500 mb trough develops across thIS CANCELLED...e eastern
U.S. Northerly flow on the backside of this trough...along with
southwest extent of short wave energy into east Texas...may help form
up a band of moisture along/ahead of a wind shift (early summer
"front"). After another hot and dry Sunday, this moisture should be
sufficient to provide at least scattered thunderstorms across the
region late Sunday night through Monday night...perhaps continuing
into Tuesday before potentially pushing south of the area Tuesday
night/Wednesday. Uncertainty is high as to how far south the wind
shift makes it...with the deterministic ECMWF taking it through the
entire area and the GFS washing it out closer to Austin.

Regardless...the combination of increased cloud cover and/or a wind
shift to the north will bring high temperatures closer to seasonal
averages (90 to lower 90s) for Monday through Wednesday and eliminate
the need for additional Heat hazards.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The outflow boundary that surged across most of our area on Wednesday
disrupted the lower level flow. At the I-35 sites, MVFR CIGs have
been removed, although FEW MVFR clouds are still possible overnight
into mid morning with VFR prevailing through Thursday night. Light
winds overnight become easterly at 5 to 10 KTs on Thursday, then
light again Thursday night. Pattern remains at KDRT with MVFR CIGs in
the morning, otherwise VFR with occasionally breezy southeasterly
winds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

        THU        FRI        SAT
       06/06      06/07      06/08
------------------------------------------------
AUS   103/2011   100/2022    99/2022
ATT   103/2022*  103/2022   102/1925
SAT   104/2022   104/2022   101/2022
DRT   110/2022   108/1974   107/2020

* TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  98  76  97 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  98  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73 101  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            72  96  74  96 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           82 106  79 104 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        71  96  75  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             74 100  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  96  75  96 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  99  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           75 100  76 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...04