065
FXUS64 KEWX 150514
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1214 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Looking at the latest GOES 16 regional water vapor imagery,  we note
the flattened Subtropical Ridge over the Baja of California
extending eastward into South Central Texas. This should result in
synoptic scale sinking motion through the short term period with hot
and dry weather expected through at least Saturday. An expansive Cu
field is noted on visible satellite imagery over central and south
Texas this afternoon and that is expected to happen once again on
Saturday despite high pressure aloft, as easterly to southeasterly
surface flow off the Gulf of Mexico keeps low level moisture in play
to form those clouds. Temperatures should mainly be kept in check,
with highs in the 90s for most and heat indices in the 100-105
range. The Rio Grande Plains will continue to top out in the 100-103
range through Saturday. A much more interesting forecast is in play
for the long term. See below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The general morphology for the extended period is familiar to
climatological patterns seen for "slugs of moisture" coming up from
the Gulf into Texas/Mexico. There are prospects for tropical cyclone
development in the Bay of Campeche, but we are still at an early
stage for if/where/when (refer to NHC Outlook for more information).
The GFS and lesser extent ECMWF seem to have a good handle on the
familiar pattern, with increasing precipitable water and decreasing
pressure through the weekend. The net result of that will be slowly
increasing rain chances Sunday through Tuesday, followed by scattered
storms areawide next Wednesday through Friday. There are still a
wide range of possibilities depending on tropical cyclone formation,
but at this time, the threat of heavy rain for our area seems
limited, and and overall rain chances top out around 50 percent next
Wednesday and Thursday, so not a washout for outdoor activities.
Temperatures and heat will be above seasonal normals through Monday,
then near normal for Tuesday/Wednesday, and then below normal with
the cloudcover and scattered storms next Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Besides patchy MVFR ceilings that are possible at SAT/SSF around 12-
15Z, VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light wind
overnight becomes southeasterly at I-35 sites generally less than 13
knots. A bit higher wind speeds are expected in the west along the
Rio Grande including at DRT. Better chances for more widespread MVFR
ceilings are seen early Sunday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              97  75  96  77 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  96  73  96  75 /   0   0  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     97  74  98  76 /   0   0  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            94  73  93  75 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          103  79 103  80 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        94  73  94  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             97  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        95  73  95  75 /   0   0  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   93  71  94  75 /   0   0  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       97  76  98  77 /   0   0  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           98  76  99  77 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...Zeitler
Aviation...27