Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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970 FXUS64 KEWX 181734 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1234 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 150 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Low clouds are developing across the southern Edwards Plateau and parts of the Rio Grande Plains. Most of the hires models suggest for this pattern to continue overnight through the middle of the morning. Clouds lift and scatter out for partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies this afternoon. High temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s across the Hill Country and mid to upper 90s elsewhere. No rain expected throughout the day as upper ridging dominates the local area. The dry weather conditions continue this evening and into the overnight period. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the lower 70s across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau to mid and upper 70s across the rest of the local area. Low clouds return overnight across most locations for mostly cloudy skies and stay throughout the morning hours. By noon on Thursday, partly cloudy skies are forecast to dominate the local area with highs in the lower 90s across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau while the rest of the local area gets into the mid to upper 90s. Rain is not expected across South Central Texas for this period. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 150 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Upper level ridge over most of Texas late this week gradually shifts to the south this weekend with the axis from the northern Gulf of Mexico coast to over far southern Texas into Mexico early next week. A series of upper level troughs move out over the Plains and Central states this weekend into early next week with their dynamics passing north of our area. There remains some uncertainty with respect to the lower levels. Most recent models/ensembles have kept any frontal boundaries north of our area while an occasional operational run have it briefly move into our area. Have favored the consensus and keep it north of our area. As a result, with no forcing mechanisms, rain is not forecast. The exception being Sunday afternoon when a surface boundary may approach our area bringing a few showers to parts of the Edwards Plateau. Although no fronts are expected, the lower level thermal ridge slowly weakens this weekend into early next week leading to a slight "cool" down. However, temperatures remain above normal through the forecast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Our late summer pattern of overnight low clouds and afternoon scattered cumulus will continue for the next TAF period. VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon and evening. MVFR ceilings will develop overnight and last through the late morning Thursday. Winds will be from the southeast generally 10 kts or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 76 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 75 98 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 99 75 100 / 10 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 74 96 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 79 98 79 98 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 74 97 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 76 96 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 74 98 73 98 / 10 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 96 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 78 97 76 98 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 78 98 77 99 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...17 Long-Term...04 Aviation...05