470
FXUS64 KEWX 161755
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1255 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

As ridging aloft gradually builds over the area, most of the region
will remain dry and warm today and Tuesday. The exception is across
far southwest areas, in Maverick and Dimmit counties, where isolated
showers will be possible today. This is in an area of deeper
moisture, extending into Mexico and south Texas, and where weak mid
and upper level forcing is still present. Another exception is near
a weak surface boundary that will be draped today and washing out
Tuesday through portions of the northern Hill Country, into the I-35
corridor between Austin and San Antonio, and east along the I-10
corridor. A few CAMs continue to indicated very isolated showers in
this area late this afternoon and evening and again late Tuesday
afternoon along this weak boundary. The aforementioned ridging aloft
will work against any more coverage than that. Given the low
confidence and coverage we will only indicate a silent 10 pop.
Continued warm afternoon temperatures with highs today and Tuesday
in the mid to upper 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Upper level ridging over a lower level southerly flow continue mid
to late week. Rain is not forecast due to very low chances. However,
there is a potential for a few showers each day should lower level
moisture be deeper. This is due to the low level jet impinging on
the Edwards Plateau during the early mornings and seabreeze moving
over the Coastal Plains during the late afternoons. The ridging
flattens allowing an upper level trough to move over the Plains
states next weekend. Forcing from the approaching trough and possible
surface boundary could lead to slight chances of showers and
thunderstorms late Saturday into Sunday. However, there remains some
uncertainty on the extent of the trough and boundary over our area
making even the slight chances seem generous. Well above average,
summer-like temperatures continue, though trend a little closer to
average next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

VFR flight conditions will prevail through the period. A stray
shower is possible across the Hill Country to near the San Antonio
terminals both this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon but probability
remains too low with the very limited areal extent to include any
mentions within the TAF package. The winds will remain generally
light of 10 knots or less from the east-northeast to the east-
southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  99  75  98 /   0  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  98  74  97 /   0  10   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  98  74  98 /  10  10   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            71  95  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  97  78  97 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        71  95  74  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             72  97  74  95 /   0   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  97  73  96 /  10  10   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  97  74  95 /   0  10   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  98  76  97 /  10  10   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           76  98  76  98 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...76
Long-Term...04
Aviation...Brady