043
FXUS64 KEWX 201135
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
635 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Key Messages:

*Moderate rainfall will continue this morning in the western half of
the area.

*The threat for widespread flooding has ended and the Flood Watch
has been cancelled.

*Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast today and with
tropical moisture still in place, could produce locally heavy rain.

Discussion:

Rain associated with Tropical Storm Alberto continues to move west
across South Central Texas early this morning. Due to westward track
of this storm, storm total precipitation has remained on the light
to moderate side given our proximity from the center circulation.
The eastern half of the area will see dry conditions through this
morning, while beneficial rainfall continues in the west through the
morning hours. With current rain rates remaining tame and the
general lull in the east, have opted to cancel the Flood Watch
early.

Rain chances do return across a majority of the area today in the
form of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Moderate CAPE but
little shear will keep any storms non-severe with locally heavy rain
the main threat given PWATS still on the order of 1.75-2.25 inches.
Widespread flooding or flash flooding is not anticipated with this
activity. Mostly cloudy skies will help keep temperatures below
average again today, generally ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s.
Any showers or thunderstorms will dissipate around sunset with
another mostly dry period in the forecast through Friday morning.
Remnants from Alberto will keep deep, tropical moisture in the area
with showers and thunderstorms possible again Friday. With little
upper level support, expect more isolated coverage of any storm
activity. Cloud cover will be more scattered this afternoon as well
which will bump afternoon highs up 2 or 3 degrees from those seen
today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

The center of the Subtropical Ridge shifts west over Texas to over
the southwestern states this weekend and remains there through the
middle of next week. A potential tropical system indicated in the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico should move west into Mexico early next
week. NHC currently (20/06Z) has a 50 percent chance of tropical
cyclone development. Its only impact on South Central Texas will be
a resurgence of tropical moisture on Sunday into Monday. An
unseasonably moist airmass with PWs of 1.4 to 2.2 inches remains
over South Central Texas through the period. While the Ridge will
provide some subsidence to inhibit convection, heating of the
increased PWs should be able to overcome this for low chances of
daytime showers and thunderstorms over our far southern areas on
most days, though up to the I-35 corridor Sunday and Monday. Locally
heavy downpours are possible Sunday and Monday due to the increased
PWs. Near to slightly above normal temperatures prevail through the
period. With the recently increased soil moisture and the increased
PWs, daytime mixing should be less efficient causing heat indices to
possibly reach advisory levels on Monday through Wednesday along and
east of the I-35 corridor.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Widespread rain continues for areas along the Rio Grande, including
DRT, with isolated showers further east behind the main band moving
west into Mexico. DRT will likely see rain through 16Z with VCSH
beginning at SAT/SSF the previous hour. Isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity this morning may become more scattered during
the afternoon hours with chances across all of South Central Texas.
Ceilings are mainly a mix of VFR to IFR for the start of the period,
with gradual improvement expected through the morning. MVFR ceilings
may remain through the afternoon for the western half of the area.
Any shower or storm activity should decrease this evening with drier
conditions overnight as another round of low ceilings redevelop over
the area. Gusty easterly to northeasterly wind will persist today
with gusts from 20-25 knots. Lighter winds expected late this
evening and overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              89  75  93  74 /  40  30  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  89  74  92  72 /  40  20  20   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     88  74  91  72 /  50  20  30   0
Burnet Muni Airport            88  74  90  73 /  30  20  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           91  77  93  77 /  80  70  50  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        89  73  91  72 /  20  20  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             87  74  90  73 /  60  30  30  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        87  73  90  71 /  50  20  30   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   87  74  90  73 /  40  20  30   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       87  75  90  74 /  60  20  20  10
Stinson Muni Airport           88  76  92  75 /  60  20  30   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...04
Aviation...27