474
FXUS64 KEWX 101723
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Early morning radar trends show one area of convection weakening over
eastern Bexar/western Guadalupe counties. Elsewhere, another area of
convection continues over Val Verde and Edwards counties, along with
some weak radar echoes developing farther east into the Hill Country
across northern Kerr county. Rain chances through most of the
morning hours have been based largely on radar trends and adjusted
upward across the southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country.
While a few strong to marginally severe storms are possible, most
activity should remain below severe limits. Some locally heavy
rainfall can be expected given healthy precipitable water values and
weak steering flow.

The latest model guidance has trended upward with regard to rain
chances across south central Texas today. A fairly weak, but broad
upper low over far west Texas into southern New Mexico will slowly
drift northward today. On the southern edge of this low, some weak
upper disturbances embedded in the weak west/northwest flow aloft
will move into the region. With daytime heating and outflow
boundaries from ongoing convection, we expect to see additional
showers and storms today. We have opted to increase rain chances over
the NBM given the pattern we are in. While model solutions vary, we
have enough confidence to boost rain chances into the 30-50% range
for most of the region today. We may need to trend these values
upward (southern Edwards Plateau/Rio Grande plains?) if we start to
see signs of MCV development from the ongoing activity.

For tonight, most areas should see a decrease in coverage of
convection. The models do favor some overnight activity moving down
from west central Texas into portions of the western Hill Country,
southern Edwards Plateau and perhaps the Rio Grande plains. We will
keep some low rain chances here, but again may need to boost pending
model trends. The slow-moving upper low begins to move southward out
of the Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas on Tuesday. Convection
should be mostly isolated Tuesday afternoon, with models favoring the
Hill Country and nearby I-35 corridor near and north of Austin. Given
the fairly weak flow aloft, chances for a few strong to marginally
severe storms will remain low. However, above normal moisture and
overall weak steering flow will pose a locally heavy rainfall
concern, especially where multiple rounds of showers and storms
occur. With the increased rain chances, we will keep highs mostly in
the 90s today and tomorrow. The exception being out west along the
Rio Grande, where some highs may approach 100 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

An increase in mid-level disturbances associated with the above
mentioned upper low are expected to move out of west central Texas
into portions of central Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday. A fair
amount of the models show some of the higher rainfall totals during
the late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning time frame over the
Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau. We have increased rain
chances over this region and will likely need to make additional
adjustments depending on what occurs from previous rounds of
convection. Some pockets of heavy rainfall are likely to develop, but
the exact location remains in question. For now, the models tend to
favor the Hill Country, but some of this could also drop southward
into the I-35 corridor. Given the ongoing areas of drought across the
Hill Country, portions of the I-35 corridor and Rio Grande plains,
some areas we are hopeful for some localized improvement in drought
conditions. If the pattern manages to develop as expected, highs on
Wednesday may only peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the Hill
Country and a decent portion of the I-35 corridor. If the upper low
trends a little slower in subsequent model runs, we may need to add
some rain chances to the forecast for Wednesday night.

With the subtropical ridge axis quickly building in from the west
during the latter half of this week, temperatures are expected to
trend upward. In addition, we will keep the forecast dry through the
mentioned period. Highs on Thursday will range from the lower 90s to
near 100 degrees. These values will increase into the mid 90s to
near 105 degrees for the upcoming weekend. Overnight lows are largely
expected to remain in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period except with any
thunderstorm activity. Lingering showers this morning will likely
inhibit any additional thunderstorm development around SAT/SSF this
afternoon. Did keep a mention of VCTS at AUS where higher
temperatures and more instability may lead to isolated storms in the
vicinity. Still a small chance a complex in west Texas moves back
into the area and will leave the PROB30 group in for DRT for now.
Winds will generally remain below 10 knots through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  93  73  90 /  20  10  30  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  93  72  89 /  20  10  30  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  96  73  92 /  20  10  30  20
Burnet Muni Airport            73  90  71  87 /  20  20  40  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           79 101  80 100 /  20   0  20  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  91  71  87 /  20  20  30  30
Hondo Muni Airport             74  96  74  93 /  20  10  30  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  93  72  90 /  20  10  30  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  91  73  89 /  20  20  30  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  95  75  92 /  20  10  30  20
Stinson Muni Airport           76  97  76  94 /  20  10  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...27